Exit Polls Indicate Clear Path to Power for NDA in Bihar Election 2025

Exit polls for the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 show a strong win for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with three major survey firms forecasting between 133 and 167 seats out of 243. The rival Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is projected to get much fewer seats, while the newly formed Jan Suraaj Party appears marginalised. Voting turnout crossed 67% in phase 2.

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Strong majority forecast for NDA

Three recent exit-poll surveys paint a confident picture for the NDA in Bihar’s Assembly elections. For example, the survey by Dainik Bhaskar projects the NDA to win 145-160 seats, with the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) at 73-91 and others at 5-10. The poll by People’s Insight puts the NDA at 133-148 seats, MGB at 87-102, the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) at 0-2, and others at 3-6. 

The survey by Matrize expects a clear sweep for the NDA with 147-167 seats, while MGB may get 70-90 and others very few.

In short, all exit-polls show the NDA comfortably crossing the majority mark of 122 seats in the 243-member assembly.

What the numbers mean 

A few points to understand about these projections:

• With 243 seats in the assembly, the halfway mark is 122 seats. The NDA’s projected range is well above that.
• The MGB, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Indian National Congress, appears to be trailing significantly in these forecasts.
• The newly-launched Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), headed by strategist Prashant Kishor, is projected to win very few seats (0-5 in some polls) despite being seen as a potential “third front”.

High voter turnout and what it suggests 

The second and final phase of polling concluded with a provisional turnout of 67.14%, a record for Bihar. In the first phase (November 6), turnout was also historically high at about 64.66%. High turnout can suggest a strong motivation among voters, either for change or for reaffirming the status quo. In this case, the comparatively high turnout appears to benefit the ruling alliance, at least the exit polls indicate so.

Campaign themes and stakes The election has seen major themes and messaging from both sides:

• The NDA has campaigned heavily on its governance record in Bihar, on welfare schemes (such as promises of Rs 10,000 for women entrepreneurs and 125 MW free electricity in some schemes) and has invoked concerns about law & order. 
• The MGB has responded with its own pledges, such as one government job per family and a one-time payment of Rs 30,000 to economically disadvantaged women.
• The JSP tried to position itself as an alternative to both major blocs, focusing on crowdsourced agendas. But the exit-poll results show it may struggle to convert momentum into seats.
• The result will also mark a potential end of an era: Nitish Kumar has been Chief Minister of Bihar for much of the last 19 years, and this election is widely expected to be his last.

Why the headlines favour the NDA 

Putting together the numbers and context:

• The exit polls from multiple independent agencies consistently show the NDA with a strong lead.
• The projected seat ranges give the NDA a clear majority, not just a narrow win.
• The opposition’s projections are significantly lower, indicating a likely weak performance in comparison.

With high voter turnout and active campaigning, the momentum appears to lean towards the ruling alliance in the previews given by exit polls.

However, it is important to note: exit polls are not final results. They are based on samples and early flows, and have margins of error. Past elections in Bihar have shown that predictions can still be off.

Counting of votes is scheduled for 14 November 2025 for all 243 seats across Bihar. Key districts to watch include those in the Seemanchal region (Mithilanchal, Kosi belt) as they have large minority and socially backward populations, and the outcomes there will affect overall tally. 

The performance of the JSP will be closely observed: whether it remains marginal or ends up influencing which major alliance gets the numbers depends on how many seats it picks up (if any). The role of electorate behaviour, such as how first-time voters and women voters cast their votes, and whether high turnout converts to expected results.

Whether the NDA manages to translate the exit-poll lead into actual seats, sometimes strong predictions do not fully play out when counting happens.

Implications beyond Bihar The result in Bihar will be more than just a state matter:

• It will affect the strength of the NDA at the national level and could influence strategies for future elections, such as the 2029 general elections.
• A large majority win for the NDA could reinforce the governance narrative of the ruling alliance and boost confidence in its incumbency.
• On the flip side, a weak showing by the MGB or the JSP may mean more introspection among opposition parties on alliance strategy, leadership faces, and message.

The result will also shape policy expectations in Bihar, with the ruling alliance in comfortable majority position, it may feel empowered to push flagship schemes, while the opposition may need to reposition for the next fight.

Caveats & things to remember

Exit polls are not perfect: sampling errors, response bias and last-minute shifts can all make the actual result differ. The article in The Hindustan Times reminds that pollsters in 2020 had mixed success in Bihar.

Projections are seat-based rather than vote-share based: sometimes a party could have high vote share but lose many seats due to narrow margins and distribution.

Local issues, candidate factors, and seat-level dynamics can produce surprises. Even if the alliance wins overall, there can be unexpected losses or wins.

The exit-polls suggest a landslide win for the NDA in the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025. With projected seat tallies ranging from 133 to 167 for the NDA and significantly fewer for its rivals, the ruling alliance appears to be headed for another term in office. The high voter turnout and vigorous campaigning seem to have worked in its favour. But the full verdict will only come on November 14, when the counting ends and the official results are declared. Until then, the political drama in Bihar remains alive and unscripted.

(With ANI inputs)