All eyes are on whether Nifty can hold above 24,500 and break the 24,800 resistance. Analysts warn the recovery will need a decisive breakout to sustain.
After six consecutive weeks of declines, Indian equity markets staged a strong rebound, with value buying taking center stage – the Nifty 50 reclaimed the 24,500 mark.
But is this just a technical bounce, or will the market sustain this recovery? SEBI-registered analysts shared their trade set-up for Tuesday on Stocktwits.
The Need For A Decisive Breakout
Analyst Mayank Singh Chandel said that the index showed a short-term recovery from a technical perspective, but the lower-high, lower-low structure on the daily chart remains intact. To reverse this bearish setup, Nifty will need a decisive close above the 24,750–24,800 resistance zone.
On the upside, if Nifty sustains above 24,600 in the opening hour, it could extend gains toward 24,700–24,750. And a breakout above 24,750–24,800 will be crucial to shift the trend back in favour of the bulls, according to him.
On the downside, Chandel identified immediate support at 24,500. Below this, 24,330 becomes the next critical support level, where buyers may attempt to defend.
Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services echoed the sentiment that one cannot term this a complete market recovery. He noted that the Nifty index was facing stiff resistance at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average at 24,600-24,630. If Nifty crosses this decisively on Tuesday, it could rally to 24,720-24,800 and higher. On the downside, he identified immediate support at 24,550, which, if breached, opens the doors to 24,500-24,460-24,400-24,340.
Until the market maintains a trade range between 24,500 and 24,450, the probability of an exceptional collapse is lower. Sharma expects a higher probability of it riding the pullback wave above 24,500.
24,500: The Litmus Test For Nifty
Analyst Arun Mantri said that the Nifty Index is likely to open around 24,500-24,520, which is the Call writers’ zone. The litmus test for Nifty is whether it can hold 24,500.
He added that strength in the first hour of trade will be crucial to monitor, with support seen around 24,330 on a closing basis. Any close above 24,650 will confirm a bottom formation.
Analyst Dipak Takodara reiterated that follow-through buying is required, and with higher volumes to bring confidence.
Key levels to watch:
• Support: 24,467–24,377; 24,200–24,150
• Resistance: 24,882–24,917, 25,000-25,100
He noted that bias remains slightly positive as long as the index holds 24,467–24,377. A push above 24,882–24,917 could take it toward 25,000. A daily close above 25,100 would be the first clear sign that bulls are regaining control. If the index fails near 24,882–24,917, he expects it to remain range-bound, and if it falls back under 24,377, he sees a dip toward 24,200–24,150.
And Pradeep Carpenter said that the short-term structure remains supportive as long as it holds above 24,421, which acts as the first significant support. Further cushions are placed at 24,257 and 24,168. On the higher side, resistance levels are pegged at 24,674 and 24,763, with a breakout above these opening the door to 24,927. Bank Nifty’s immediate support lies at 55,097, with a deeper base at 54,684, while resistance is positioned at 55,752 and 55,994.
Investors will be watching for key macroeconomic data releases both in India and the U.S. later today.
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