Bihar election survey 2025: The battle for Bihar assembly elections has now reached a decisive point. The political heat is increasing with each passing day, and in this environment, the results of the latest opinion poll have created a tremendous stir in the politics of Bihar.
These surveys are no less than ‘good news’ for Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) CM candidate Tejashwi Yadav. According to the JVC poll results released, Tejashwi Yadav has emerged as the most preferred leader in the race for the post of Chief Minister and has left his main rival, NDA leader and current Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, behind. Young Turks Chirag Paswan and Prashant Kishore have also registered a strong presence in this survey, due to which the election picture of Bihar is now pointing towards a triangular conflict.
Threat of ‘Tejashwi’ on the post of CM: Mathematics of figures
According to the report of Times Now, in this survey conducted by JVC Poll between 23 and 30 October, the opinions of 32,657 people were taken through direct interviews and phone. The biggest variation in these results was seen in the choice of Chief Minister:
Tejashwi Yadav (RJD, Grand Alliance): He is liked by 33 percent people as the most popular chief ministerial candidate.
Nitish Kumar (JDU, NDA): The current Chief Minister has got the support of 29 percent people, due to which he has slipped to second place.
Not only two prominent faces, but many other leaders have also made their place in this survey. Jan Suraj Party leader Prashant Kishore and LJP (Ram Vilas) chief Chirag Paswan, who entered the electoral fray in Bihar for the first time, are jointly in third place by securing 10-10 percent points. At the same time, in this survey, 9 percent people have considered Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary as their favorite CM candidate. 5 percent people believe that someone else from the Grand Alliance and 4 percent believe that someone else from the BJP can become the CM. These figures clearly show that the voters of Bihar are no longer limited to just two poles.
‘Nitish’s NDA’ ahead in the battle for seats: Grand alliance far from majority
Despite Tejashwi getting the lead for the post of CM, this opinion poll of JVC shows the NDA getting a slight lead in the battle for seats. According to the survey, NDA is expected to get 120 to 140 seats, which is very close to the magic figure of majority (122). At the same time, the grand alliance led by Tejashwi Yadav is shown to be reduced to 93 to 112 seats, which means that they may remain some distance away from the majority figure. This survey has also made it clear that BJP will emerge as the largest party within the NDA. BJP is expected to get 70 to 81 seats, while JDU can get 42 to 48 seats. Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas), which is contesting on 29 seats, is also expected to get 5 to 7 seats.
Performance of Grand Alliance: RJD strong, Congress weak
Talking about the Grand Alliance camp, the performance of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) looks strong in terms of seats. RJD, which is fighting on 143 seats, can win 69 to 78 seats. This figure will establish them as the largest party in the grand alliance. However, this survey has not brought good news for the Grand Alliance’s ally Congress Party. It is estimated that the performance of Congress may be worse than the last assembly elections. It is expected to get only 9 to 17 seats.
This opinion poll makes it clear that Nitish Kumar, who is facing anti-incumbency wave in Bihar, may be lagging behind in the race for the post of CM, but NDA is still in a strong position in the equation of seats. At the same time, Tejashwi Yadav’s popularity puts him on top for the post of Chief Minister, but his party is not getting as strong support from the alliance partners. The people of Bihar have indicated a hung assembly this time, where young players like Chirag Paswan and Prashant Kishore can come into the role of king makers.