A late-stage study tested three doses of Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 drug, Orforglipron, in more than 3,100 adults, with the highest dose resulting in an average weight loss of 27.3 pounds over 72 weeks.
Analysts delivered mixed verdicts on Eli Lilly after the drugmaker released late-stage trial results for its investigational oral weight-loss drug Orforglipron, sending shares sharply lower on Thursday.
Eli Lilly shares closed down 14.1% at $640.86 on Thursday, their worst session since Aug. 9, 2000, but climbed in after-hours trading. The stock is now at lows last seen in early 2024.
Leerink downgraded Eli Lilly to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Outperform’ and cut its price target to $715 from $944, calling the results “disappointing” and lowering its long-term projections.
The firm stated that its investment thesis had shifted and no longer anticipated upward pressure on consensus estimates, warning of rising GLP-1 competition by the end of the decade, even as rival Novo Nordisk faces pricing pressure.
BofA, by contrast, called Eli Lilly’s second quarter (Q2) earnings and FY25 guidance raise “refreshing” compared with Novo’s “troubled” quarter, saying the drop in Lilly’s stock was “way overdone” and created a buying opportunity.
The bank kept its ‘Buy’ rating and $1,000 price target, saying Eli Lilly remains “in pole position in obesity.”
The Phase 3 ATTAIN-1 trial in 3,127 adults with obesity or overweight showed patients on the highest 36 mg dose lost an average of 12.4% of body weight, or 27.3 pounds, at 72 weeks, with nearly 60% losing at least 10%.
Lilly stated that safety was consistent with injectable GLP-1 drugs, such as Mounjaro. The company plans to seek regulatory approval by the end of the year.
H.C. Wainwright’s Joseph Pantginis said Viking Therapeutics’ VK2735 “remains a standout” after comparing discontinuation rates favorably with Eli Lilly’s data. The firm reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on Viking with a $102 target and raised its target for Structure Therapeutics to $75 from $60, citing the potential of its oral GLP-1 candidate aleniglipron.
Eli Lilly also lifted its 2025 revenue guidance midpoint by $1.5 billion to $60 billion–$62 billion and now expects adjusted EPS of $21.75–$23.
The company’s Q2 revenue jumped 38% to $15.56 billion, with $5.2 billion from Mounjaro and $3.38 billion from Zepbound. Adjusted EPS was $6.31, topping forecasts.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Eli Lilly, which was among the top three trending tickers, was ‘extremely bullish’ amid a 1,228% surge in 24-message volume.
One user on Stocktwits said they believed Eli Lilly shares would rebound eventually, but not immediately, noting that with Friday approaching and the rest of the world yet to react, it might be better to wait before adding more calls or shares.
Another user commented that they had bought as much stock as they could, calling it “way oversold” despite what they viewed as an extremely bullish earnings report, adding that stock market makers “are a mystery.”
Eli Lilly’s stock has declined about 17% so far in 2025.
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