Jannik Sinner’s dream of reclaiming the World No. 1 spot is once again within reach – but even if he pulls it off, fate has one more curveball in store.
Despite being just four wins away from overtaking Carlos Alcaraz atop the ATP Rankings, the Italian will not walk into the ATP Finals as the top seed.
After ruling the men’s game for 65 consecutive weeks, Sinner was toppled from the top spot in early September, when Alcaraz snatched the top spot following his US Open title-winning showing. Many believed Alcaraz, the six-time Grand Slam champion, would keep a firm grip on the throne through the rest of the season.
But tennis scripts rarely follow expectations. Alcaraz’s shock second-round exit at the Paris Masters has blown the title race wide open – giving Sinner a golden opportunity to reclaim No. 1 if he wins the final ATP 1000 trophy of the year.
And yet, there is a catch. The ATP Finals seedings do not follow the live rankings but rather the ATP Race to Turin, where Alcaraz still leads the charts with 11,050 points. Even a title-winning performance in Paris would lift Sinner only to 10,000, meaning the Spaniard will still hold the top seeding in Turin.
Crunching the numbers tells the same story in the official rankings. Alcaraz currently sits on 11,250 points in the Live Rankings, while Sinner can reach a maximum of 11,500 if he lifts the trophy at La Défense Arena. But his reign would be fleeting – lasting just one week before Alcaraz reclaims the top spot.
That is because once the 2024 ATP Finals points are deducted after the final regular ATP Tour week (November 3-9) – which features the Hellenic Championships and Moselle Open – Sinner will lose the 1,500 points he earned for going undefeated in Turin last year, while Alcaraz will drop only 200.
Hypothetically, even with a Paris Masters title, Sinner would fall to 10,000 points, with Alcaraz steady at 11,050.
As a result, Alcaraz will remain the top seed, leading Group Jimmy Connors, while Sinner will head Group Bjorn Borg at the year-end showpiece.
Further down the line, Alexander Zverev remains in contention for the third seed, sitting on 4,660 points in the Race to Turin. However, if the German fails to reach the latter stages in Paris, Novak Djokovic could swoop in – the 24-time Grand Slam champion has entered the Hellenic ATP 250 event in search of one last push up the standings.