New Delhi: Crisil has revised the forecast for the GDP growth of the Indian economy. The rating agency has come up with a new figure of 6.5 percent for the current fiscal year, FY26. The reason for this revision is above-normal monsoon, successive rate cuts by RBI, and the policy support for rural growth from the end of government.
The Crisil report says that the Meteorological Department of India is expecting an above-normal monsoon, thereby expecting the onset of the southwest monsoon to boost agricultural produce. IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) is expecting an above-average monsoon for the fiscal year 2026. The report further said that the IMD has pegged the long-period average of monsoon this year at 106%, which will further help the fiscal spending by the government for increasing agricultural output.
Crisil is also expecting another policy rate cut by RBI in the current fiscal year, which will further boost the domestic demand.
The Central Bank has already made policy rate cuts by 100 basis points successively from February 2025. The current repo rate stands at 5.50 percent.
The positive effect of capital expenditure (center and states combined) made by the government could be seen in the increased output in investment-related goods in the month of May 2025. Investment-related goods, such as bonds and ETFs, have shown positive results in May.
“Added to this growth story are the income tax cuts made by the government in the Union Budget 2025 for the current fiscal year, FY26. Additionally, the enhanced funding for the rural support schemes as announced in the budget too will help increase the overall private consumption,” said the agency in its report.
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