Markets remained in a tight range as traders await the RBI’s rate verdict. Trump’s aggressive stance on trade and pharma tariffs loomed large over sentiment.
Indian equity markets opened on a cautious note, trading in a narrow band ahead of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy decision. The Nifty index traded below 24,700, led by weakness in pharma, IT and real estate.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has warned that if India continues to purchase Russian crude oil, he will impose another round of penalties or tariffs within the next 24 hours.
At 09:30 a.m. IST, the Nifty 50 traded 5 points higher at 24,655, while the Sensex was up 85 points at 80,795. Broader markets underperformed, with the Nifty Midcap and the Smallcap indices falling 0.2%.
Meanwhile, the retail sentiment on Stocktwits for Nifty is ‘neutral’ amid ‘high’ message volumes.
Stock Watch
Sectorally, it’s a mixed bag with IT, pharma, and real estate under pressure. Meanwhile, media, PSU banks and energy saw some buying.
Pharma stock trended lower after US President Trump announced plans for an initial small tariff on pharmaceuticals, escalating to 150% within 1.5 years and then to 250%, to promote domestic production.
Defense stocks gained as the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) approved projects worth ₹67,000 crore. BEL rose 1%, Astra Micro and Midhani rose 2%, among others.
Bharti Airtel shares opened over 1% higher on a strong show in the June quarter earnings. On the other hand, Hexacom fell by over 2% on poor Q1 results.
Britannia shares fell 2% on subdued earnings performance. Other earnings movers include CCL Products (-7%), Raymond Realty, and Godawari Power (-5%).
One97 Communications (Paytm) continued to decline, falling 1%. Societe Generale and My Asian Opportunities Master Fund picked up a stake in the company.
Watch out for Hero Moto, Bajaj Auto, Trent, Divis Laboratories, Bajaj Holdings, Bharat Forge, BHEL, Blue Star, Fortis Healthcare, Pidilite Industries, PVR Inox, among others, as they report quarterly earnings today.
Markets: The Road Ahead
From a technical standpoint, SEBI-registered analysts on Stocktwits shared the trade setup.
Varunkumar Patel noted that Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold approximately ₹20 crore worth of equities in the cash segment. In the F&O segment, they built fresh net index short positions of nearly 12,000 contracts, indicating a negative near-term bias.
Going ahead, Trump’s tariff threats are likely to keep Indian markets volatile and weak in the coming weeks, unless positive news emerges on a trade deal or GST concessions, he added.
As we count down to the RBI’s rate decision at 10 am, Patel said that while the market consensus points towards no rate change, a significant positive surprise is unlikely given the monetary boost already provided in the previous decision.
He anticipates a weak undertone in the market through this month and possibly into next month. Every bounce is an opportunity to short until Nifty crosses and sustains above 24,900. Patel advised traders to focus on fundamentally strong stocks with stop-losses, and look to short indices on rebounds.
Prabhat Mittal identified Nifty support at 24,480 with resistance at 24,820. For the Bank Nifty, he sees support at 55,000 and resistance at 55,800.
Sameer Pande sees support between 24,500 and 24,440, and resistance at 24,800 to 25,000.
Global Cues
Globally, Asian markets traded mixed, while crude oil prices rebounded from a five-week low on concerns of supply disruptions.
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