30 seats of Mithilanchal are decisive in Bihar elections 2025. NDA is eyeing those 7 seats which were lost due to Chirag Paswan in 2020. Now being with Chirag, NDA is trying to win him back.
Patna: The contest in the Bihar Assembly elections 2025 is close, but all eyes are on the 30 seats of Mithilanchal. It is believed in political circles that the result of these seats will decide the direction of the new government. Out of these 30 seats, there are 7 seats which have become ‘hot seats’ and are a question of prestige for both the alliances. These seven seats are currently held by RJD and CPI(M), and NDA wants to capture them at any cost.
Why are these 7 seats of Mithilanchal ‘hot’?
Of the 30 seats in Mithilanchal, the remaining 23 are held by NDA, but these 7 seats are with the opposition alliance (INDIA). These include one seat in Darbhanga, four in Samastipur and two in Madhubani.
- Prominent RJD MLAs: RJD has many big name MLAs on these seats, including Tej Pratap Yadav from Hasanpur in Samastipur, Lalit Kumar Yadav from Darbhanga Rural and Sameer Kumar Mahaseth from Madhubani.
- CPI(M) stronghold: Vibhutipur seat is held by CPI(M)’s Ajay Kumar, which is a symbol of the strength of the Left in the region.
- Compensation for ‘loss’ for NDA: NDA had to face defeat on these seats in the 2020 elections, mainly due to the candidates of then ally LJP (Chirag Paswan faction), who had defeated JDU. This time Chirag Paswan is with NDA, hence the return of these 7 seats has become a matter of prestige of the alliance.
‘Chirag Factor’ of 2020 and NDA’s loss
In the 2020 assembly elections, LJP had fielded its candidates on 17 out of 30 seats in Mithilanchal. Of these, there were 7 seats where even though LJP candidates did not win, they ensured the victory of RJD or CPM candidates by cutting the votes of JDU (then in NDA).
Maximum loss in Samastipur
NDA suffered direct loss on 4 out of 7 seats in Samastipur district. In Vibhutipur, Hasanpur, Samastipur and Morwa, the sizeable votes received by LJP candidates pushed the JDU candidates to second or third position and RJD or CPI(M) won. For example, the 9,882 votes polled by LJP’s Arjun Prasad Yadav played a major role in Tej Pratap Yadav’s victory in Hasanpur.
Madhubani and Darbhanga situation
- LJP candidates also became the reason for NDA’s defeat in Laukaha and Madhubani seats of Madhubani by getting 30,494 and 15,818 votes respectively.
- JDU’s defeat was due to LJP candidate getting 17,605 votes in Darbhanga Rural seat, and RJD’s Lalit Kumar Yadav became the MLA.
equation of 2025
This time Chirag Paswan is part of the NDA alliance. In such a situation, NDA’s strategy is clear: The 7 seats which could not be won in 2020 due to LJP, have to be won this time at any cost. Chirag’s supporters will now work for the alliance candidates, which is expected to strengthen the NDA’s vote bank.
At the same time, INDIA alliance is also not ready to give up these seats. RJD and CPI(M) MLAs occupying these seats are preparing to repeat their victory on the basis of their strong hold and local caste equations.
Till the election results are out, both the major alliances of the state as well as the voters are waiting to know whether the NDA will be able to win back these ‘Hot 7’ seats with the return of Chirag Paswan or whether the INDIA alliance will be successful in changing the direction of the government by saving these bastions.