Geopolitical tensions and RBI outcome could influence the next big move. Experts highlight 24,800 as the next test for bulls in a volatile, policy-heavy week.
After five weeks of weakness, Monday’s session saw bulls take charge, with the Nifty reclaiming the 24,700 level. Investors will be watching for geopolitical developments as India hit back at the US after Donald Trump threatened to “substantially” raise tariffs on goods from India over its purchase of Russian oil.
All eyes will also be on the Sensex expiry session today and the Reserve Bank of India’s rate decision due tomorrow. The GIFT Nifty indicates a positive start on Tuesday.
Market Watch
Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services noted that the Nifty index avoided breaching the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 24,580 on Monday. But there is still no significant evidence of a trend reversal.
He said that while there is a break on the downward trend, it was still premature to conclude that the market has established a sustainable pullback.
Meanwhile, Pradeep Carpenter observed that Nifty’s close above the Central Pivot Range (CPR) confirms bullish control heading into the next session. In contrast, Bank Nifty lacked follow-through, indicating hesitation and reduced conviction, possibly ahead of the upcoming RBI policy.
Options data mirrors this divergence, he added. Nifty saw aggressive put writing at the 24,700 strike, pushing the Put-Call Ratio to 1.21, which is a clear vote of confidence from bulls. Implied Volatility remained stable, suggesting the move was healthy and not panic-driven. Meanwhile, Bank Nifty’s PCR hovered around 1.09 with OI build-up clustered between 56,000 and 56,500, reinforcing the view of consolidation and indecision.
Trade Setup For Tuesday
Looking ahead, Sharma identified immediate resistance at 24,730, which aligns with the 100-day EMA on a 15-minute timeframe. If the index crosses this level, it could then test 24,800, which is the 200-day EMA on the 15-minute timeframe. On the downside, he sees immediate support at 24,680, which, if breached, can lead to the following supports at 24,640-24,600-24,540, and 24,500.
Sharma cautioned that with the Sensex expiry scheduled for Tuesday, price action and open interest (OI) data suggest it could be a volatile and active expiry session.
From a technical standpoint, Carpenter believes that any breach above the 24,780–24,800 zone could trigger a fresh leg toward 24,880–25,000. Support now shifts upward to the 24,540–24,660 range.
For Bank Nifty, a breakout above 55,960 is needed to revive momentum; otherwise, a drift toward 55,300 remains on the cards.
Analyst Financial Sarthis identified Nifty supports at 24,655, 24,605, and 24,540, with resistance at 24,831, 24,881, and 24,947. For the Bank Nifty, they pegged supports at 55,437, 55,300, and 55,191, with resistance at 55,755, 56,075, and 56,211.
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