Global crude oil prices are expected to surge, with Brent likely to climb to $80 per barrel in the coming months, as mounting tensions between the United States and Russia threaten to disrupt the global energy supply chain.
According to oil market analysts, further geopolitical escalations, especially potential US sanctions or 100 per cent tariffs on countries trading with Russia, could push Brent prices to a high of $120 per barrel.
NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities & CRM at Ventura, told ANI, “Brent Oil (Oct 2025) from $72.07 has a short-term target of $76. Year-end 2025 could see it rise to $80-$82, with downside support at $69.” He added that President Donald Trump has warned Russia to end its war in Ukraine within 10-12 days or face additional sanctions and trade penalties, which could worsen the global oil outlook.
For West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude (Sep 2025), experts see a rise from the current $69.65 to a short-term target of $73, and possibly $76-$79 by year-end. The downside is protected at $65.
Energy expert Narendra Taneja noted that Russia exports nearly 5 million barrels of crude daily into the global supply chain. “If Russian oil is forced out, crude prices would rise significantly, likely in the $100-$120 range,” he said. “India may not face a shortage due to its diversified sourcing from over 40 countries, but shielding consumers from price volatility would be a challenge.”
Analysts say spare capacity in OPEC+ nations is limited, and while Saudi Arabia and other producers may eventually ramp up supply, short-term deficits could trigger price spikes. Even without new OPEC+ cuts, the market could shift into a supply-deficit scenario.
Despite a stabilising US-EU trade agreement and an extended US-China truce, risks remain elevated. The market is also watching US inventory levels and upcoming Fed rate decisions, as a stronger dollar may cap some of the price surge.