Gold return
This year, gold has given more than 30% returns to investors on MCX. On the other hand, other risk assets like silver have also climbed around 35%. At the same time, the Nifty 50 index has increased by about 4.65%. The BSE Sensex gave a return of around 3.75%, while some big shares of the Sensex performed better as Reliance shares have made more than 14% profit this year and HDFC Bank shares are about 12.50% above. That is, gold and silver have left the rest of the assets far behind.
Even in a long time, gold and silver have won the market. In the last six years, gold on MCX has increased from Rs 32,000 per 10 grams to Rs 97,800 per 10 grams i.e. more than 200%.
Will gold be strong even further?
According to commodity market experts, gold will remain in top risks in the coming time. Even in the case of recession, gold can give at least 40% returns in the next five years, and if there is a boom then it can be expensive by up to 125%.
Why is the price of gold increasing?
Santosh Meena, research head of Swastika Investmart, said that there has always been emotional and economic importance of gold in India. In recent years, it has also become a strategic asset for central banks around the world. After the Russia-Ukraine War, when Russia’s foreign exchange reserves were freed, this trend has intensified since then. Due to the rising geopolitical stress and trade war, the central banks are buying gold as safe haven assets, which is increasing its price.
He said that there are many big reasons behind this. The biggest reason is the decrease in trust in US dollars. Now many central banks are giving priority to gold instead of dollars in their reserve. The second reason is the increasing debt of America, which has raised questions on the stability of the dollar and the gold has become more important as a value store. Also, political instability around the world is also pulling people towards gold.
Why did gold give so much return in the last 6 years?
SS WealthStreet founder Sugandha Sachdeva said that gold has given about 200% returns in the last six years. Gold was Rs 34,200 in June 2019, which has now reached Rs 97,800 per 10 grams in 2025. The Kovid-19 epidemic, loose monetary policies, ziopolitical stress and uncertainty of financial market were major reasons behind this.
He said that during the epidemic, money was added to the economy on a large scale, the interest rates were almost zero, which increased the fear of falling inflation and currency. As a result, the real interest rates became negative and the benefit of holding gold increased. Governments also gave many stimulous packages, which increased money in the market and gold worked as a safe option.
Geopolitical tension
Sugandha Sachdeva said that many geopolitical reasons gave new height to gold:
- Russia-Ukraine War (February 2022)
- Banking crisis in America (SVB, Credit Suisse 2023)
- Tension in Middle East (October 2023)
- America’s growing trade war (2025)
- Central banks break record gold purchases
- Trying to reduce dependence on dollar worldwide
Due to these reasons, gold reached a record level of Rs 1,00,178 per 10 grams in 2025. Even in the coming time, these factors can maintain gold at a high level.
Will gold continue to rise?
Sugandha Sachdeva said that central banks from all over the world are constantly buying gold, so that its demand will remain strong. Today, gold stake in the reserve of central banks has increased to about 20%, while the dollar stake was 73% in 2001, which has now come down to 58%.
Also, the trend towards multi-currency system in the world is now increasing, which is weakening the dollar and gold is becoming a reliable option. America’s rising debt and fluctuations in global currency market are also making gold more attractive. In countries like China, the insurance sector has also given a place to gold in its portfolio. ETF inflow and weak rupee are also helping to increase the price of gold.
Is this the right time to buy gold?
Sugandha Sachdeva said – Sona will continue to work as a value store and portfolio diversifier for a long time. In view of the increasing global debt, geopolitical risk and uncertainty of the currency market, investors should continue to buy gold slowly on price correction and keep strategic allocation for the next five years.
Gold price in next five years
According to Sugandha Sachdeva, gold can go from 1,35,000 to Rs 1,40,000 per 10 grams in the coming five years. If profit booking or dollar strengthens in the short term, the price may fall slightly, but there will be a strong support between 72,000 and 75,000 rupees.
At the same time, Santosh Meena of Swastika Investmart admits that if the trend remains now, gold can reach Rs 2,25,000 per 10 grams in the next five years. He says that in the last five years, gold has given about 18% compound annual growth and in the coming years, geopolitical stress, trade war and central banks will keep its price strong.