Following the Election Commission of India’s (ECI) announcement of the schedule for the Bihar Legislative Assembly elections, a new opinion poll from IANS-Matrize News Communications indicates a substantial victory for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
The survey, titled Bihar Vidhan Sabha Chunav Opinion Poll-2025, projects the NDA to secure a commanding majority, winning between 150 and 160 seats in the 243-member assembly.
The NDA, spearheaded by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is poised for significant gains, with a projected 49 per cent vote share. This figure represents a notable increase from the 37.3 per cent vote share the alliance managed during its narrow 2020 victory.
Within the coalition, the BJP is anticipated to emerge as the largest party, expected to garner 21 per cent of the votes and win 80-85 seats, reflecting its increasing organisational strength across the state. The JD-U is predicted to follow closely, commanding 18 per cent of the votes and securing 60-65 seats, suggesting “Nitish Kumar’s enduring appeal among certain voter segments despite his frequent alliance shifts,” as per the survey.
Smaller partners are predicted to contribute meaningfully to the NDA’s total including Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP(R)) projected for a 6 per cent vote share and 4-6 seats; Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) with a 2 per cent vote share and 3-6 seats; and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) with a 2 per cent vote share and 1-2 seats.
INDIA Faces Uphill Battle Despite RJD’s Strength
The Opposition’s INDIA bloc (formerly the Mahagathbandhan) is forecasted to secure 36 per cent of the votes and win 70-85 seats. This projection marks a slight dip from the 37.2 per cent vote share the coalition achieved in the 2020 elections.
The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), under Tejashwi Yadav, remains the backbone of the opposition, expected to secure 21 per cent votes and 60-65 seats, which positions the party as a ‘direct challenger’ to the NDA’s dominance, according to the poll. Other key alliance partners are projected as follows:
Indian National Congress (INC) is expected to secure only 8 per cent vote share with 7-10 seats, Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation (CPI-ML) is expected to secure a 4 per cent vote share with 6-9 seats.
Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), which switched from the NDA after the 2020 polls is projected to gain 1 per cent vote share with 2-4 seats, and other Left parties (CPI and CPI(M)) are projected to gain 2 per cent vote share collectively with 0-2 seats.
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party A Disruptor?
The survey highlights the presence of new and smaller players who could disrupt the political arithmetic. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party is notably forecasted to secure 7 per cent of the votes and win 2-5 seats, indicating its potential to challenge traditional caste-based politics.
Other parties, including the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), are collectively projected at 7 per cent of the votes and 7-10 seats, suggesting they could play potential kingmaker roles in a fragmented result. Additionally, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is expected to target minority votes in the Seemanchal regions, securing an estimated 1 per cent votes and 1-3 seats.
The poll suggests the electorate is highly polarised, with the NDA capitalising on perceived stability under Nitish Kumar, despite the vulnerability caused by his frequent alliance shifts—most recently re-joining the NDA in January 2024. However, core issues like unemployment—Bihar has one of India’s highest jobless rates—and migration are viewed as factors that could sway undecided voters.
As the state, with its over 70 million voters, braces for the polls, the focus remains on the NDA’s “double engine growth model” versus the opposition’s welfare-centric promises. Experts caution that while opinion polls provide a valuable ‘snapshot,’ they are not guarantees, citing the 2020 result where the popular vote was nearly tied despite the NDA securing a 15-seat lead.