According to the Dow Jones consensus, experts expect job growth of 84,000 and unemployment to remain steady at 4.1%.
- Signs of a strengthening labor market will likely give the Fed more room to hike interest rates.
- However, according to data from the CME FedWatch tool, the probability that the Fed will hike interest rates is 24.9%, down from 68.6% a week ago.
- Nike shares dropped nearly 9% in the overnight session late Thursday after the company posted a softer full-year forecast and said its turnaround efforts would take time.
U.S. stock futures traded higher in the overnight session late Thursday, even as traders look ahead to the release of September’s jobs report, which is likely to provide further cues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
As of 10:18 p.m. EDT, Dow futures were up 0.09%, the S&P 500 futures had gained 0.18%, while Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.36%.
On Thursday, all three benchmark indexes closed higher as the new quarter began. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.04%, the S&P 500 gained 0.19%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.04% at close.
| Index | Move | Close |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 0.04% | 50,926.56 |
| S&P 500 | 0.19% | 7,666.45 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 0.04% | 26,871.60 |
Key US Market Drivers
U.S. markets will be tuned into September’s nonfarm payrolls report expected on Friday. Per the Dow Jones consensus, experts expect job growth of 84,000 and unemployment to remain steady at 4.1%.
Friday’s jobs report comes as recent inflation data continues to point to persistent price pressures. August PCE data released Wednesday showed inflation easing slightly but remaining above the Fed’s 2% target. Signs of a strengthening labor market will likely give the Fed more room to hike interest rates.
However, according to data from the CME FedWatch tool, the probability that the Fed will hike interest rates is 24.9%, down from 68.6% a week ago.
Christopher Hodge, chief U.S. economist at Natixis CIB Americas, told CNBC that given the current view of a stable labor market, even a strong jobs report would likely be insufficient on its own to prompt the Fed to raise rates in October. He expects continued growth in manufacturing and construction, driven in part by the ongoing data-center buildout.
“We expect payrolls to slow from the torrid pace from August, but still to register solid gains. We expect payrolls to increase by 60k, which if realized, would bring the three-month moving average of gains to 81k,” Hodge reportedly said.
Meanwhile, on Thursday, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said rates may need to rise by at least 50 basis points to bring inflation under control, while Fed Governor Lisa Cook flagged AI-driven inflation as a significant risk for 2027.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he expects additional rate hikes may be needed to cool the economy through 2027, though he was uncertain whether the next increase would come as early as October.
U.S. Treasury yields surged to multiyear highs this week before pulling back on Thursday. At the time of writing, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was trading at 5.256%, below the 5.3% that it had previously soared to. The 30-year Treasury bond yield was trading at 5.629% at the time of writing.
Meanwhile, Nike reported fiscal first-quarter results on Thursday, posting $11.2 billion in revenue, down 4% year over year, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.48. However, the company forecast a high-single-digit revenue decline for fiscal 2027, with adjusted EPS of $1.15–$1.35, below analysts’ expectations, while management said its turnaround efforts would take time.
Oil prices were trading above $100 a barrel. At the time of writing, Brent crude futures expiring in December were trading at $102.35 a barrel, while WTI crude futures expiring in November traded at $92.78 per barrel.
Trending Stocks To Watch
Nike Inc. (NKE): Shares of the shoemaker dropped nearly 9% in the overnight session late Thursday after the company posted a softer full-year forecast and said its turnaround efforts would take time.
Netflix Inc. (NFLX): Shares of the streaming giant were on the retail radar after co-CEO Ted Sarandos said the company is not growing as quickly as he would like.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA): The company drew attention amid reports that China may allow it to purchase Nvidia’s RTX PRO 5500 professional GPUs.
Evernorth Holdings Inc. (XRPN): The digital asset treasury company was in the spotlight after shares jumped more than 9% in the overnight session following shareholder approval of its Armada II business combination, which is expected to raise about $300 million in gross proceeds.
Other Market Trends
Among ETFs tracking benchmark indexes, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) all climbed higher overnight.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) was down 0.28% amid ‘bullish’ sentiment.
Asian markets opened mixed on Friday. South Korea’s KOSPI, China’s SSE Composite and Australian stocks were all in the green at the time of writing. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trending lower at the open.
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