Micron stock regained momentum heading into the Sept. 30 earnings report.
- Tight DRAM supply and rising prices are strengthening Micron’s earnings setup.
- Micron could announce a fresh buyback alongside earnings, giving investors another potential catalyst beyond its strong memory fundamentals.
- Retail sentiment for MU was ‘bullish’ as of late Sunday.
Micron shares dipped nearly 1% in overnight trading late Sunday, cooling a strong rally ahead of a crucial week in which the memory giant will report quarterly earnings that could shape the outlook for one of the market’s hottest sectors.
Even as expectations remain high, with analysts and traders largely expecting Micron to deliver, investors are also closely watching for an announcement of a fresh share buyback.
Micron’s buybacks have been constrained by restrictions tied to its CHIPS Act funding agreements, with limits said to expire in December, the second anniversary of signing those agreements.
Micron currently has $10 billion authorized for share repurchases, of which approximately $2.16 billion remained as of its fiscal third-quarter report in June. The company said it had spent about $7.84 billion on repurchases under the authorization through that point; it made no repurchases during Q3.
Micron’s free cash flow jumped about 220% sequentially to $17.6 billion last quarter, and the company expects to spend $27 billion in capital expenditure in fiscal 2026, with CapEx expected to be higher next year.
Analyst View Ahead Of Micron’s Q4 Report
Last week, Wells Fargo analysts reiterated their ‘Overweight’ rating and raised the price target on MU to $1,525 from $1,400, implying a 41% upside from the stock’s close.
While results are expected to be strong, the research firm said shares would be driven by the company’s comments on the duration of memory tightness, expanding Strategic Customer Agreements (SCA), and Micron’s execution.
Similarly, Citi upped its price target to $1,300 from $1,150 and kept a ‘Buy’ rating, adding that DRAM and NAND markets remain undersupplied.
Analysts expect Micron’s fiscal fourth-quarter revenue to rise 353% to $51.24 billion, the highest growth on record, per Koyfin data. Adjusted earnings are expected to rise 943% to $31.59 per share.
The current consensus price target is $1,515.54, implying a 40% upside from the last close. Micron will report its results after the market close on Wednesday.
Memory Stocks Trends, Retail View
Micron and peer SanDisk have regained momentum, with both stocks up about 13% so far this month. Micron’s broader exposure to DRAM and HBM gives it more direct exposure to AI compute than storage-focused peers.
MU was the top trending stock on Stocktwits at the time of writing, with retail sentiment climbing to ‘bullish’ on Sunday.
“Expecting announcement for share buyback that’ll drive up share price,” a trader said, to which another trader speculated that Micron could buy back as much as $25 billion every quarter after December.
Traders discussed a possible stock move around the earnings report, based on past trends. “$MU hoping it dumps the day of earnings and then blasts off AH like last time. Be careful and sell immediately the next morning! This still is just shy of its ATH which happened last earnings,” said a trader.
Another wrote: “$MU trade idea: Get in now and sell before earnings. Gotta be sitting just around 1240 before earnings. That’s still 14% from the current price.” MU stock is up 279% year to date.
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