In a Stocktwits poll gauging where investors would rather put their money, a majority voted for stocks.
- In the poll, 55% of users said they would invest in stocks right now, while only 17% said they would put their money in cash or bond markets.
- Of the respondents, 15% said they would put their money in gold or other commodities, while 13% picked cryptocurrencies.
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has surged to a 19-year high this week, crossing the 5% threshold.
U.S. long-dated bond yields are soaring to multi-year highs amid rising oil prices and inflationary pressures. Despite the attractive returns, retail investors still prefer putting their money in stocks for now.
In a Stocktwits poll asking where investors would rather put their money, more than half voted for stocks.
Are Stocks A Better Bet Than Bonds Now?
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has surged to a 19-year high this week, crossing the 5% threshold. At the time of writing, 10-year yields were at 5.167%, while the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield traded at 5.464%.
However, in the poll, 55% of users said they would invest in stocks right now, while only 17% said they would put their money in cash or bond markets. Of the respondents, 15% said they would put their money in gold or other commodities, while 13% picked cryptocurrencies.
One user, bullish on the stock market’s rally under President Donald Trump’s administration, said, “[Best] time to be in stock and go #maga for easy flip. Anything that $DJT touches becomes gold! Crypto, metal, drone, gas, oil, you name it…. i think this new way of public service to focus solely on economic metrics than inflation metrics! Way to go ma man! $QQQ $SPY $DIA. Golden era begins!”
Some users said real estate would also be a good market to invest in. One user said, “Real estate. Invest in upcoming real estate monsters like $OPEN.”
US Long-Dated Treasuries Soar Amid Inflation Concerns
Although the U.S. Treasury Department said on Thursday that it had bought back $4.078 billion of 20- to 30-year bonds in an operation as part of a $6 billion buyback program to support market liquidity, yields have continued to soar.
Rising oil prices that have sustained above $100 a barrel, an AI spending boom, and booming federal budget deficits that have pushed debt to a record $40 trillion have kept inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for years.
Meanwhile, some market participants believe this is a fundamental shift rather than a temporary surge. “We are in a new regime,” Samuel Martinez, portfolio manager at Vanguard, reportedly told Bloomberg. He added that global central banks’ focus on inflation has traders pricing in multiple hikes worldwide.
The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at its September meeting to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the first hike in over three years.
American billionaire investor and businessman Jeffrey Gundlach, widely known as the “New Bond King,” said in a post on X, “The dilemma: If the Fed hikes, it will worsen the interest expense problem (since so much borrowing is at the short end). If the Fed cuts it will worsen the inflation problem.”
Earlier this week, BlueBay Asset Management’s head of market strategy, Mike Bell, told Reuters that the latest move above 5% may have started triggering concerns about a rise to 6%. “People think of it as if there’s a magic number for Treasury yields at which it becomes a problem, (but) it’s a relative number, not an absolute number,” Bell said, noting that the 5% threshold has always been a psychological marker rather than an automatic tripwire.
Economist Peter Schiff noted in a post on X, “Another day, another high in bond yields. The 10-year Treasury now yields 5.2% and the 30-year yields 5.48%. Enjoy these low rates while you can as they won’t last long. Soaring government spending, debt, inflation and de-dollarization will drive rates much higher.”
Bond Yields Rise Globally
Beyond the U.S., other global economies are also dealing with rising bond yields amid energy disruptions from the Iran war and high borrowing levels. On Thursday, Japan’s government yields soared to levels last seen in 1996. South Korea’s government bond yields are hovering around 3.97% to 4.58% across maturities, although China’s 10Y bond yield has held steady at 1.67%.
Why Retail Traders Are Still Betting On Stocks
In 2026, U.S. stock markets have rallied despite the ongoing war as a boom in artificial intelligence demand has bolstered them higher. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq have both notched fresh highs, drawing in investors amid growing AI optimism.
Analysts have been raising their year-end targets on the benchmark indexes. Recently, Jefferies forecast that the S&P 500 would extend its rally through the end of 2026 and well into next year, with a year-end target of 8,000 for the index and an increase to 9,000 by the end of 2027. Jefferies said that AI is a key catalyst for the earnings story, estimating that companies with direct or indirect exposure to AI and data-center investment already account for about 46% of the S&P 500, with their earnings expected to grow about 60% in 2026.
UBS Global Wealth Management sees the index climbing to 8,100 by year-end, implying upside of more than 5% from current levels.
Meanwhile, traders on Kalshi are betting that the Nasdaq 100 will close at or above 33,000.01 in 2026, implying an upside of more than 8% from current levels.
Among ETFs tracking benchmark indexes, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was up 0.17% at the time of writing amid ‘extremely bullish’ sentiment.
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) also gained 0.44% and 0.18%, respectively, amid ‘bullish’ sentiment. Year to date, SPY has surged over 11%, while QQQ is up about 19% and DIA has gained over 5%.
One user said, “$SPY I see green, keep it green.”
Another user said, “$QQQ Once everyone realizes that the market is built on hopes, you will finally understand why it will never go down.” The user added that the market had already priced in all bad news, adding that, “the sooner you accept it, the better it is for you.”
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) was last up 0.33% overnight heading into Friday amid ‘neutral’ sentiment. But year-to-date, it has lost nearly 10%.
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