Cox expects Ford’s Q3 sales to decline 7.1% and Hyundai’s to rise 6.5%.
- Asian brands are forecast to capture more than half of U.S. new-vehicle sales, Cox said.
- General Motors is expected to remain the top-selling U.S. automaker in Q3, despite declining sales.
- Cox expects Tesla’s U.S. sales in Q3 to slump more than 30%.
Detroit’s traditional auto giants are expected to lose further ground to Asian rivals in the third quarter, with Cox Automotive forecasting Ford (F) to fall behind Hyundai Motor Group (HYMTF) in U.S. vehicle sales.
At the time of writing, F shares were down 1.2%, tracking a fifth straight session of decline, while GM dropped more than 2%.
Cox Sees Q3 Sales Decline For Ford, GM And Tesla
Cox expects Ford to sell 504,172 vehicles in the third quarter (Q3), down 7.1% from last year, while Hyundai is forecast to sell 511,421 vehicles, up 6.5% year over year.
General Motors (GM) is expected to remain the top-selling U.S. automaker in Q3, despite sales expected to fall more than 5.2%.
Ford’s weakness follows a soft second quarter in which U.S. sales fell 10%, partly due to phasing out vehicle models. Cox expects Ford’s year-to-date sales through September to fall 8.8% while GM’s sales are forecast to decline 6.2%.
It also expects Tesla’s (TSLA) U.S. Q3 sales to slump more than 30%.
Hybrid Vehicle Demand Boost Asian Carmakers
Cox sees Asian automakers continuing to gain ground as U.S. consumers increasingly shift toward hybrid vehicles and passenger cars, segments where Asian brands have traditionally held a stronger position. Asian automakers are expected to account for more than half of U.S. new-vehicle sales for a second straight quarter.
Together, the ‘Detroit 3,’ which also includes Stellantis (STLA), are expected to hold just over 36% of the market in Q3, their lowest share on record.
Ford Looks Beyond Cars
Ford, however, has a new trick up its sleeve – expansion into the battery storage market through Ford Energy. The company has committed roughly $2 billion to transform its Kentucky battery operations to manufacture energy-storage systems.
Ford has also signed a five-year agreement allowing EDF Power Solutions to procure up to 20 GWh of battery storage systems, with deliveries expected from 2028.
Sean Duffy Urges Ford To Reduce China Dependency
Ford has also faced criticism from the Trump administration over its ties with Chinese companies. Earlier this month, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy urged Ford to reduce its reliance on China, raising concerns about its use of CATL battery technology in Michigan, its partnership with Geely in Spain, and its continued production of some Lincoln vehicles in China.
Ford responded by saying its CATL arrangement is a technology-licensing agreement rather than a joint venture, and that it owns and operates the Michigan battery plant with American workers.
Morgan Stanley said that while Duffy’s criticism creates a new regulatory overhang, it is “likely more benign than feared.”
Retail’s Take On Ford And GM
Retail sentiment surrounding F has remained ‘neutral’ over the past 24 hours, while sentiment for GM trended in the ‘bearish’ territory.
F shares are down 3.9% so far in 2026, while GM stock has edged 1.1% higher. Both stocks have outperformed Tesla, which is down 13% year-to-date.
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