As the southwest monsoon retreats, expanding drought and stubborn soil-moisture stress are casting uncertainty over farms and the crucial cropping season ahead.
India’s southwest monsoon is retreating with drought stress covering more than half the country, raising concerns for crops, soil moisture and the approaching rabi season.
The India Drought Monitor at IIT Gandhinagar estimated that 52.5 per cent of India’s area was experiencing dry or drought conditions on September 16. About a month earlier, the share was 38.9 per cent, meaning the affected area expanded by nearly 35 per cent.
Karthikeyan Lanka, associate professor at IIT Bombay’s Centre for Climate Studies, said the drought appeared worse than the 2015-16 episode. He described the comparison as qualitative, pointing to the drought’s persistence, geographic reach and dry intervals during the monsoon.
Rainfall has been uneven. India received 706.9 mm between June 1 and September 22 against a normal 832.4 mm, leaving a 15 per cent deficit, according to the India Meteorological Department. The figure remained within IMD’s “normal” range, but 41 per cent of the country had deficient seasonal rainfall and 42 per cent recorded normal rainfall.
Drought conditions were most extensive in western India, where 79 per cent of the region was affected, followed by southern India at 67 per cent. The Northeast stood at 62 per cent, the Northwest at 47 per cent, the East at 42 per cent, the North at 41 per cent and central India at 40 per cent.
Several regions recorded large deficits. Rainfall was 43 per cent below normal in Rayalaseema, 37 per cent lower in coastal Andhra Pradesh and 36 per cent lower in Marathwada. Northern and southern interior Karnataka were each 32 per cent deficient, while Kerala was 28 per cent below normal during June 1-September 20.
Farm pressure builds as rains fade
Agricultural drought forecasts by IIT Bombay researchers for September 7-October 4 indicated persistent stress in parts of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra and western Madhya Pradesh. Rain temporarily improved soil moisture in some places, but deficit conditions were expected to return across parts of eastern and southern India.
Lanka linked this persistence to a monsoon marked by alternating wet and dry spells rather than continuous rainfall. Extended drying persisted for weeks in Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Maharashtra, West Bengal, northern Karnataka and parts of Jharkhand. Even western Madhya Pradesh, despite receiving substantial rain, showed drought stress, illustrating how short-lived rainfall may not quickly reverse earlier soil-moisture losses.
The consequences are emerging in kharif sowing. Agriculture ministry data showed kharif acreage at 1,096.49 lakh hectares on September 11, down from 1,112.54 lakh hectares a year earlier, a reduction of 16.05 lakh hectares.
Paddy accounted for most of the drop. Rice sowing covered 426.81 lakh hectares, nearly 17 lakh hectares below last year’s level. Karnataka recorded a decline of 4.54 lakh hectares and Telangana 4.46 lakh hectares, followed by Andhra Pradesh at 1.90 lakh hectares, Madhya Pradesh at 1.75 lakh hectares, Tamil Nadu at 1.40 lakh hectares and Maharashtra at 1.15 lakh hectares.
Late-season soil-moisture stress could affect crops at critical growth stages and may also carry risks into the rabi season, when farmers rely on residual monsoon moisture and reservoirs.
The agriculture ministry and Indian Council of Agricultural Research had identified 315 districts in June as potentially vulnerable to El Niño-related farm distress. Of these, 111 were considered high priority because irrigation coverage was below 25 per cent.
Meanwhile, El Niño continues strengthening in the tropical Pacific. The World Meteorological Organization said the event is firmly established and expected to persist through February 2027, increasing the possibility of prolonged rainfall and temperature anomalies across regions.