Early iPhone 18 delivery data are becoming less negative outside China, but Wall Street remains divided over whether Apple is entering a stronger upgrade cycle.
- iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max wait times increased by about 3 and 2 days week over week, UBS said.
- The firm maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating and $296 price target on Apple stock.
- Apple unveiled the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max on Sept. 9, with store availability starting Sept. 18
Apple Inc. (AAPL) is seeing signs of improving iPhone 18 demand at the margin, according to UBS, though China remains the main weak spot in the firm’s latest supply-chain and wait-time data.
UBS Evidence Lab found average wait times for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max increased by roughly three and two days week over week, respectively, according to TheFly.
The year-over-year decline in wait times has also narrowed to around one day, suggesting demand outside China is now running close to flat compared with last year.
China, however, still accounts for most of the weakness in the data, UBS said. The firm maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating and $296 price target on AAPL, per TheFly. Against the stock’s $339.75 close, the target implies roughly 13% downside potential.
UBS Sees Demand Stabilizing Outside China
Wait times often serve as an early indicator of demand relative to available supply after a new iPhone launch. Longer delivery times can point to stronger orders, tighter supply, or both, while shorter waits can suggest softer demand.
For UBS, the important change is that the gap versus last year is narrowing. The firm still is not calling for a meaningful acceleration in demand, but the latest readings suggest the early picture has become less weak outside China, per TheFly.
iPhone 18 Pro Is Starting Its Sales Cycle
Apple unveiled the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max on Sept. 9, with pre-orders beginning Sept. 12 and store availability starting Sept. 18 across more than 65 countries and regions, including China and the U.S.
The new Pro models feature Apple’s A20 Pro chip, a 48-megapixel main camera with variable aperture, upgraded battery performance, and Siri AI through iOS 27. Apple said the Pro Max delivers the ‘largest battery-life increase’ ever on an iPhone.
That means the UBS readings capture only the very early stage of the launch, making the next several weeks of wait-time and channel data important for determining whether the initial improvement holds.
Evercore Sees A Stronger Upgrade Cycle
Analysts remain divided on Apple stock. While UBS sees downside in the stock, Evercore ISI raised its price target on AAPL to $380 from $365 last week while maintaining an ‘Outperform’ rating, according to TheFly.
The firm’s annual survey of nearly 4,000 consumers suggested the latest iPhone cycle could come in better than expected. Evercore said unit demand could perform well behind the new launches and, “critically,” believes pricing could increase by more than 20%.
The two notes, therefore, highlight different signals: UBS is watching real-time delivery and wait-time data, which remain soft in China, while Evercore is relying on consumer purchase intentions and sees scope for both higher units and materially higher pricing.
China Weakness Would Be A Shift From Apple’s Latest Quarter
The early iPhone 18 data are notable because Apple’s most recent reported quarter showed strong growth in China.
In the fiscal third quarter (Q3), Apple’s Greater China revenue rose to $18.82 billion from $15.37 billion a year earlier, an increase of about 22.4%. Overall iPhone revenue climbed to $54.25 billion from $44.58 billion, up roughly 21.7% year over year.
Apple also reported record June-quarter company and iPhone revenue, with total sales rising 16% year over year to $109.4 billion. The company recorded double-digit revenue growth across iPhone, Mac, and Services, as well as every geographic segment.
The question now is whether the iPhone 18 can carry that momentum into the new product cycle. UBS sees early improvement but remains cautious, particularly in China, while Evercore believes the latest launches could support a stronger-than-expected refresh cycle.
Retail Sentiment Around AAPL Stock
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around AAPL stock remained ‘bearish’. At the time of this writing, the stock was up marginally in Wednesday’s premarket trade.
In the previous session, AAPL stock surged to an all-time high of $345.34. It is headed into a sixth week of gains amid growing optimism about its device launches.
So far this year, Apple shares have gained more than 25%, making it the best-performing Mag 7 stock.
In comparison, the Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Mkt ETF (VTI) and Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS), which hold AAPL stock, have risen around 13% and 11%, respectively, over the same period.
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