India’s petroleum product exports worth USD 15 billion to the European Union (EU) may be at risk as Brussels moves to restrict imports of Russian crude oil refined in third countries, economic think tank GTRI said.
The 18th package of sanctions by the 27-nation EU included a set of measures largely aimed at curbing the revenues of Russia’s oil and energy sector, such as an import ban on refined petroleum products made from Russian crude oil and coming from any third country.
The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said that a central component of the package is a ban on the import of refined petroleum products made from Russian crude and exported via third countries, excluding only a select few allies like the US, UK, Canada, and Switzerland.
This measure will hurt nations such as India, Turkey, and the UAE, which have been refining Russian crude and selling diesel, petrol, and jet fuel to Europe, it said.
“India’s USD 5 billion exports of petroleum products to the EU are at risk. The EU’s new sanctions ban imports of refined petroleum made from Russian crude via third countries like India,” GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said.
India exported USD 19.2 billion worth of petroleum products to the EU in FY24, but this dropped by 27.1 per cent to USD 15 billion in 2024-25, according to the think tank.
It added that India imported USD 50.3 billion of crude oil from Russia in FY2025, over a third of its total USD 143.1 billion crude bills.
“Although India continues to engage in legitimate trade with Russia, the political optics of such transactions are shifting in Western capitals. As energy ties deepen, India will have to walk a fine line between economic pragmatism and geopolitical pressure,” Srivastava said.