Investors are betting that positive late-stage trial results for Novo Nordisk’s experimental Alzheimer’s pill could mark a major turnaround for the struggling drugmaker after months of steep losses and rising competition.
After a rough few quarters for Novo Nordisk, investors are pinning hopes on an experimental Alzheimer’s pill to turn the tide.
The Danish drugmaker is set to release late-stage Alzheimer’s trial results for a pill form of semaglutide — the key ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy — by the year-end, according to a Bloomberg report. The drug candidate is being evaluated in patients with mild Alzheimer’s disease.
Analysts say the outcome could swing the stock sharply, with Morgan Stanley projecting a gain of up to 15% or a drop of up to 10%, depending on the results, although it assigns just a 25% chance of success.
Novo shares have fallen 22% since July, marking the fourth quarter in five that they have witnessed a drop of over 20%, as the company faces profit downgrades, a CEO change, and intensifying competition from Eli Lilly and lower-cost GLP-1 rivals. Earlier this week, Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to ‘Underweight,” citing weak visibility and growing risks.
Still, Goldman Sachs and other analysts say a positive Alzheimer’s readout could be transformative, potentially expanding Novo’s reach beyond diabetes and obesity. Alzheimer’s remains a notoriously challenging field, as most treatments have failed. However, retrospective data hinting that GLP-1 drugs may offer cognitive protection has kept optimism alive.
Novo’s two trials include over 3,500 participants and are the largest of their kind. If the results are positive, it would represent a huge surprise, said Sebastien Malafosse of Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Novo Nordisk was ‘extremely bullish’ amid ‘high’ message volume.
One user said they increased their Novo Nordisk position from 4,500 to 9,500 shares overnight and booked profits on part of the trade, calling it a “successful knife catch.”
Another user remarked that Novo Nordisk had become a “scalper’s paradise,” often bouncing between losses at open and recovery by close.
They suggested that some investors might be pressuring the company to adopt a more U.S.-focused strategy, similar to Pfizer’s recent move to join TrumpRx’s direct-to-consumer model, adding that such a shift could quickly restore market confidence.
Novo Nordisk’s U.S.-listed stock has declined 34.2% so far in 2025.
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