AI infrastructure spending and OpenAI exposure remain central to Oracle’s stock story as traders look for fresh catalysts.
- Oracle shares have fallen 16.5% over five sessions.
- A potential Japanese sovereign cloud contract is emerging as a closely watched opportunity for Oracle’s cloud business.
- OpenAI, one of Oracle’s key customers, is reportedly in discussion for a new funding round at a 41% higher valuation.
Oracle Corp.’s shares extended their losing streak for a fifth straight session on Tuesday, down about 16.5% over the period, even as retail traders on Stocktwits remained bullish on the beaten-down name.
The decline has come amid renewed concerns over Oracle’s aggressive AI infrastructure spending, financing needs and exposure to OpenAI, while the company also began another round of layoffs this week.
Employees posted termination emails on social media platforms including LinkedIn, Reddit and Blind, with some saying they were informed early Tuesday.
The cuts, whose scale is unclear at the moment, follow Oracle’s reduction of about 21,000 jobs, or 13% of its workforce, during its last fiscal year, which ended in May 2026.
ORCL Stock: Traders See Catalysts On The Horizon
Despite the pressure, ORCL’s retail sentiment on Stocktwits remained ‘extremely bullish’ for much of the past week, with traders looking for potential catalysts that could reverse the recent selloff.
One catalyst in focus is a potential sovereign cloud contract from Japan. The Financial Times reported in July that Oracle was leading Amazon Web Services, Microsoft and Google in the race to provide an “air-gapped” cloud infrastructure for sensitive Japanese government data.
Japan had not made a final decision on the contract. Traders are now watching for any confirmation of a deal, with some arguing that winning the Japanese contract could provide a meaningful boost to Oracle’s cloud narrative.
Sentiment also received a lift from a fresh FT report that OpenAI, a major Oracle customer, is holding early discussions with investors over a private funding round at a valuation of about $1.2 trillion.
That would represent roughly a 41% increase from the $850 billion valuation attached to OpenAI’s March funding round.
The potential fundraise could matter for Oracle because the company has been building massive data-center capacity tied to OpenAI and other AI customers. Oracle’s first-quarter capital expenditures surged to $28.5 billion, while it expects fiscal 2027 capex of as much as $95 billion.
Retail Reacts To ORCL Stock Move
A trader said “$ORCL get ready for news confirming Japan selecting ORCL cloud for sovereign cloud contract.”
Traders were also reacting to Chairman Larry Ellison’s move to cancel his planned sale of up to $7.5 billion company stock. “$ORCL The problem with $ORCL is that Larry Ellison has already shown his intentions,” said another trader.
“He wants to sell 50M shares into the market. But he suddenly realized that the shares that were already depressed would fall even further if he did. So he cancelled the sale… But cancelling the trade doesn’t mean he’s changed his mind. He’s just gotta do a better job at the PR,” they said.
On OpenAI’s potential IPO, a trader wrote, “OpenAI said last year they will come to market in fall 2026. Oracle shot to 250 , but then they delayed and dropped back down. You will see this at 280 next year if Altman brings it to market.” OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said this week that a listing is unlikely before 2027.
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