Bank of America materially raised its semiconductor equipment outlook as stronger memory demand and server investment reshape the industry’s capital-spending cycle, according to Investing.com.
- BofA now models 18% compound annual growth for the U.S. semiconductor industry through 2030.
- Wafer fabrication equipment spending is expected to reach $360 billion by 2030, per an Investing.com report.
- DRAM equipment investment alone is projected at $61 billion in 2026 and $85 billion in 2027.
Bank of America has raised its U.S. semiconductor industry growth forecast, expecting the total addressable market to reach $3.2 trillion by 2030, up from its previous $2.7 trillion estimate, according to an Investing.com report.
BofA now expects an 18% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2026 and 2030, up from 14%, with memory chips and data-center components expected to drive much of the expansion.
The U.S. semiconductor industry could nearly double from its current estimated $1.7 trillion within four years, BofA said, citing continued strong customer orders and capacity commitments in the data center and artificial intelligence sectors, according to the Investing.com report.
Memory Spending Drives BofA’s Forecast Higher
BofA also raised its wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) forecast to $156 billion for 2026 from $144 billion, representing 33% year-over-year growth. Its 2027 estimate increased to $210 billion from $190 billion, while spending could reach $360 billion by 2030.
The outlook is particularly aggressive for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), where BofA expects equipment spending of $61 billion this year and $85 billion in 2027, per the report.
AI Is Changing The Memory Cycle
Independent industry forecasts point in the same direction. SEMI expects WFE sales to rise 23.1% to $143.9 billion in 2026, citing stronger investment in advanced memory, particularly high-bandwidth memory-related DRAM, and leading-edge logic.
Recent memory-market data also support the stronger spending backdrop. TrendForce said global DRAM industry revenue jumped 59.5% sequentially to nearly $154.73 billion in the second quarter, as AI-server demand lifted shipments of high-bandwidth and high-capacity memory products while supply expansion lagged demand.
It also forecasted that DRAM and NAND Flash together could account for 68% of major cloud service providers’ capital expenditure in 2027, up from 47% in 2026.
Semiconductor Stocks See a Strong Year So Far
The stronger industry outlook comes after a powerful year for semiconductor equities so far. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has risen 45% year to date, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) has gained roughly 58%, and are among the trending tickers on Stocktwits.
The Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXQ) has jumped 51% so far in 2026, while the First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor ETF (FTXL) has rallied around 62% over the same period.
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