New Delhi: On Tuesday (September 29), U.S. President Donald Trump declared that a 100% tariff will be imposed on all movies made outside the United States. The declaration, made via Truth Social, Trump’s social media platform, stated, “Our movie-making business has been stolen from the United States of America by other Countries, just like stealing ‘candy from a baby’.”
He further highlighted that the tariff would cover “any and all movies that are made outside of the United States,” though specifics regarding implementation timelines remain unclear.
Indian trade analysts react to Trump’s tariff on foreign movies
Industry experts have pointed out that this unprecedented move could significantly impact global film distribution, box office revenues, and streaming rights. For Indian cinema, which has enjoyed a growing market in the U.S., the announcement has raised serious concerns.
1. Indian films’ growing U.S. footprint
Over recent years, Bollywood and South Indian films have consistently performed well in American theatres. Big-budget releases from Hindi, Telugu, and Tamil cinema have attracted both the Indian diaspora and general American audiences.
Films like Coolie (2025), which earned USD 6.95 million, and Saiyaara (2025), with early earnings of Rs 86 crore (~USD 10.8 million), exemplify the growing presence of Indian cinema overseas. According to trade estimates, the cumulative U.S. box office for Indian films in 2024 may have ranged between USD 80–120 million, with top releases often crossing USD 8–12 million each.
2. Potential financial fallout
Trade analysts warn that a 100% tariff could slash Indian cinema’s U.S. revenues by 30–40%, resulting in annual losses of Rs 300–500 crore. Hindi films alone risk losing Rs 200–300 crore, while South Indian cinema, which relies heavily on North American audiences, could face even greater losses. Suniel Wadhwa, Co-Founder & Director of Karmic Films, told News9Live, “Beyond India, such protectionism risks retaliation that could damage Hollywood too. The global film industry thrives on cross-border exchange, not barriers.”
3. Ticket prices and consumer behaviour
Ramesh Bala, a leading trade analyst, explained to News9Live the consumer implications: “Cost of watching a movie will go up. If people are paying $15 to $20, the ticket price will double. Buyers will be reluctant to buy movie tickets because, in countries like the USA, only big-ticket movies will run. Many will wait for OTT releases.”
He added that distributors may face serious challenges if audiences stop attending cinemas, potentially driving some out of business.
4. Selective market impact
Not all experts agree on the severity of the impact. Exhibitor and distributor Akshaye Rathi highlighted that the actual consequences would depend on policy specifics: “The number of Indian movies that do extremely well in North America is fairly selective, while it is a very significant market for Hindi and Telugu films. Theatres in North America will likely price tickets sensibly so that consumption isn’t hampered, ensuring that business continues despite any tariffs.”
5. Historical context
Indian cinema’s U.S. success is built on several factors: diaspora demand, high-quality production values, and growing mainstream appeal. Films such as Coolie, Saiyaara, and earlier blockbusters have helped establish a foothold in theatres across North America, contributing to substantial overseas revenues.
6. Possible strategic shifts
Analysts suggest that Indian studios may explore alternative strategies, including direct OTT releases, staggered premieres, or partnerships with U.S. distributors to absorb part of the tariff burden. Some believe this could accelerate the digital-first approach in global markets.
7. The wider implications
The announcement has sparked discussions about protectionism in the entertainment industry. If tariffs on services like movies become standard, it could reshape international trade norms. Indian filmmakers, distributors, and audiences alike are watching developments closely, as the next steps will determine how the market adjusts.
While the full implications of Trump’s 100% tariff plan remain uncertain, Indian cinema’s North American market faces potential disruption.