The resentment of the US and NATO due to the war with Ukraine has increased India’s concern. US President Donald Trump has threatened to ban Russian oil buyers for not ready for the peace agreement. The US has said that if Russia is not ready for a peace agreement with Ukraine, it will be imposed 100% tariff. NATO General Secretary Mark Root also threatened India, China and Brazil that if they continue trade with Russia, they will be imposed 100% and more tariffs. It is named Secondary Tariff. This threat has given birth to new concerns for India.
In fact, after the attack on Ukraine in 2022, Western countries stopped buying oil from Russia by banning Russia. India redeemed this opportunity and started buying heavy exemption oil from Russia. This purchase helped India control inflation and keep the economy stable amidst global upheaval. India imports more than 85 percent of its needs. Russia is the largest exporter for India for the last three years. But now the supply of cheap Russian oil for India is in danger.
Will India buy oil from Russia?
Now the question arises whether India will continue to buy oil from Russia after threats of strict sanctions. On this matter, India’s Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has said that India is not afraid of America’s threats to ban. The threats of America and NATO can also be a strategy of interacting with Russia. The oil market is still a good supply and prices will be low in the coming times. Russia has about 10% of the world’s oil production. If the purchase of oil from Russia is stopped, prices may increase. Türkiye, China, Brazil and many European countries are also buying oil and gas from Russia. Puri said that if oil prices are to be kept under control, then the whole world will have to use 10% less oil, which is not possible. Or you will have to buy more oil than the remaining 90% supplier, which will increase prices a lot.
The Petroleum Minister said last week that the oil prices in the world are stable due to India’s continuous buying oil from Russia. If oil is stopped taking oil from Russia, crude oil prices can reach $ 120 to 130 per barrel. He clearly said, I have no worry, if anything happens, we will deal with it. According to a recent report, many European countries supporting Russia’s ban are still buying Russia oil through third countries.
How will India manage without Russia oil?
The big question is that if the threats of the secondary sanction given by Trump and NATO are true, then how will India meet its needs without Russian oil, because today Russia’s share in India’s total oil imports is more than 33%. According to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), research on energy and clean air, China has imported 47% of Russia’s crude oil after Russia’s ban, after which India has bought 38%, the European Union has taken 6% and Turkey 6%. In FY 2021-22, Russia’s share in India’s oil imports was only 2.1%, but in FY 2024-25, Russia’s share in India’s total oil imports has increased to 35.1% shocking.
Is this just a trick of Trump?
In an ET report, experts associated with the case have said that the tax game is a way of Trump to pressurize Russia for a compromise. Trump’s warning is just a trick to make the conversation with Russia serious. Here, Russian President Vladimir Putin is also adopting a dual strategy. On the one hand, Talking to Trump on the phone and talks about the peace agreement and on the other hand Ukraine is going on attacking. Apart from this, if India and China have to face 100% tax on purchasing Russian oil, then the cost of importing America from these countries will increase, which will be burdened by American consumers and will become politically difficult for Trump.