Hayes said OTC brokers were approaching Maelstrom for dollar borrowing, a sign, he said, that the basis trade was back.
- Investors should “back up the truck and buy crypto with both hands,” Arthur Hayes said in his Substack newsletter.
- He said that Bessent’s expanded long-end bond buybacks are the same yield-capping money printing that Janet Yellen deployed in late 2023.
- The Maelstrom chief investment officer said the best hope for Bitcoin would be for the Bank of Japan to pledge to buy back long-dated paper without limit whenever yields go above 5%.
Bitcoin (BTC) may have found another catalyst in an unlikely place: the U.S. Treasury market. Arthur Hayes says a fresh wave of U.S. Treasury liquidity could be a major catalyst for crypto, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s expanded bond buybacks could increase dollar liquidity and ultimately funnel more money into risk assets, including crypto.
Hayes urged investors to “back up the truck and buy crypto with both hands”. Maelstrom chief investment officer and BitMEX co-founder argued in his Substack essay on Monday that Treasury interventions in the bond market can function as a form of “money printing” by increasing the liquidity available to financial markets.
Why Hayes Sees Treasury Moves As ‘Money Printing’ Machines
Hayes said that Bitcoin had bounced off lows after Bessent’s intervention in the dollar-yen market and an increase in Treasury buyback notional.
According to Hayes, U.S. Treasury debt is incompletely risk-free because a debt ceiling standoff can raise questions about whether bondholders will get paid on time. “While, in theory, lending to the U.S. government is risk-free in dollar terms because the Government can print money, operationally settling debts requires congressional approval,” Hayes wrote. He also argued that Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen effectively used the Federal Reserve’s reserve repo facility to inject liquidity into markets without an overt expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet.
Hayes also pointed to the Treasury market dynamics of late 2023, when roughly $2.5 trillion was sitting in the Federal Reserve’s Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (RRP). As money-market funds shifted some of those balances into higher-yielding Treasury bills, Hayes argued that liquidity became more active across financial markets. In his view, the flow supported bonds and stocks while also helping put a floor under Bitcoin following the FTX collapse.
Why The 10-Year Treasury Yield Matters For Bitcoin
Hayes said Bessent and former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have both been concerned about the 10-year Treasury yield approaching 5%.
The 10-year yield is a key benchmark across the U.S. economy because mortgages, corporate borrowing costs and other consumer and financial products are priced relative to Treasury rates.
Pointing to Bessent’s announcement of larger-than-scheduled buybacks starting next month, Hayes said that the secretary raised the coming fiscal quarter’s long-end total by a “paltry” $20 billion, which was inadequate against a total debt stock of $40 trillion.
In his view, the scale of the intervention is not yet large enough to materially suppress long-term yields. But he expects the Treasury to increase buybacks gradually if pressure in the bond market continues to build.
Hayes Wants A Bank Of Japan-Style Yield Cap
The best case for Bitcoin, Hayes said, would be for Bessent to adopt a policy similar to the Bank of Japan’s yield-control approach. Specifically, Hayes wants the Treasury to signal that it would buy 10-year and longer-dated Treasuries without limit whenever yields rise above 5%.
The more likely scenario, according to Hayes, was buybacks increasing in “drips and drabs” until the bond market experiences acute stress. He pointed to a MOVE Index reading above 130 as a potential sign that Treasury intervention would need to become more aggressive.
Hayes said that he does not expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates or resume quantitative easing until what he called the AI credit bubble bursts, noting that affordability remains the top issue for American voters.
Bitcoin’s Liquidity Trade Is Already Picking Up
Since announcing the Treasury buyback policy, Bitcoin has had its best week in daily gains since 2023, rising over 23%. Bitcoin’s price was up over 2% during the past 24 hours, briefly reaching $80,000 before retreating.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘extremely bullish’ zone, while chatter stayed at ‘extremely high’ levels over the past day.
Hayes’s larger argument was that Treasury debt management decisions can act as a form of indirect money printing by returning liquidity to financial markets.
OTC Brokers Want Dollars Again
In a separate post, Hayes said the over-the-counter brokers Maelstrom uses, who arrange large trades privately rather than on an exchange, had started messaging the firm about borrowing dollars.
He says rates are still too low, but the interest signals the basic trade is coming back, and Ethena (ENA) “will uniquely benefit,” with a lot of upside to cover.
Ethena’s price was down by 5% during the past 24 hours. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around ENA remained in the ‘extremely bullish’ zone, while chatter around it stayed at ‘extremely high’ levels over the past day.
Hayes further disclosed in the essay that Maelstrom, managed by his family office, was “at max risk,” with Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), Ethena, and Ether.fi as its positions. “Let’s watch them gallop,” he added.
Read also: ZEC Soars Over 60% In One Week: Tyler Winklevoss Says There Are More Millionaires In The World Than Whole Units Of Zcash
For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<