The impact of El Niño also remains a concern for the monsoon. India has recorded a 13% rainfall deficit, following a significant shortfall in June and uneven rainfall during July and August.
If El Niño strengthens again, monsoon activity could weaken and rainfall may decline in September. As a result, the weather over the next three to four weeks is expected to be crucial.
If favourable rainfall occurs in September due to a depression forming over the Bay of Bengal, it could provide some relief from water shortages. However, any prolonged weakening of the monsoon could further worsen the rainfall deficit during the season.