US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov for a second time in two days on Friday, with the war in Ukraine dominating the talks.
The meetings, held on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Malaysia, come amid rising tensions and renewed Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities.
Donald Trump, who pledged to end the war within 24 hours of taking office, is now more than four months into his term without any breakthrough. Rubio admitted that Trump is “disappointed and frustrated that there’s not been more flexibility on the Russian side” to end the war.
So, where does Trump go from here?
In recent weeks, Trump has been more openly critical of Vladimir Putin. “We get a lot of b**t thrown at us by Putin. He’s very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless,” Trump told reporters earlier this week. The US has hosted separate talks with Ukraine and Russia and even brought both sides together in Istanbul in May. However, while Ukraine has agreed to a proposed 30-day ceasefire, Russia has rejected it, claiming Kyiv could use it to regroup and rearm. When asked if he planned to act on his frustration with Putin, Trump said, “I wouldn’t be telling you. Don’t we want to have a little surprise?”
After pausing weapons, Trump now sends arms again
Trump’s approach to military aid has also shifted. After pausing weapons to Ukraine in early July, he reversed the decision a week later. “We’re going to send some more weapons. We have to. They have to be able to defend themselves,” Trump said on 8 July. He added that NATO would pay for the weapons, which the alliance would then pass on to Ukraine, “We’re sending weapons to NATO, and NATO is paying for those weapons, a hundred per cent.” This deal, he said, was reached during the June NATO summit in The Hague.
Trump had also frozen aid to Ukraine in February following a falling-out with President Zelensky, accusing him of pushing the US into a “war that couldn’t be won.” Still, military supplies resumed weeks later. The US has now sent around $134 billion in aid to Ukraine since 2022.
Trump considers new sanctions, but will he follow through?
Trump has also hinted at supporting new sanctions on Russia. “I’m looking at it very strongly,” he said on 8 July when asked about a new sanctions bill. Since 2022, the US and allies have hit Russia with over 21,000 sanctions. But while the economy has taken a hit, it has not collapsed. Ukraine continues to push for more pressure. “Sanctions must be strengthened,” Zelensky said after a Russian drone strike in Kharkiv.
A bill sponsored by Senator Lindsey Graham proposes tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, gas, or uranium, key exports for Moscow. But with countries like China, India and Türkiye still major buyers, and even Europe still purchasing Russian uranium, the impact may be limited unless more action is taken.
Trump previously threatened “secondary tariffs” on nations buying Russian oil but has yet to follow through. Keir Giles noted, “If this actually happens, it would be a radical departure from Trump’s consistent policy.”
Will Trump walk away from the conflict?
In April, Rubio suggested the US might “move on” if no ceasefire deal is reached. “It’s not our war. We have other priorities to focus on,” he said. Trump repeated those comments but stopped short of saying he would walk away entirely. “Well, I don’t want to say that, but we want to see it end,” he said. Despite frustration, Washington hasn’t abandoned diplomacy. Rubio said the US and Russia had exchanged new ideas. “It’s a new and a different approach… I’ll take back to the president,” he said.