New Delhi | June 28, 2025 — Gold has delivered an exceptional return of 100% in just 28 months, soaring from $1,630 per ounce in October 2022 to $3,260 currently.
Yet, despite this meteoric rise, the past two months have seen the yellow metal slide about 2%, prompting investors and analysts to ask: Is the gold rally over?
Over the past three years, geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, and investor demand for safe-haven assets helped gold shine brighter than ever. From the Russia-Ukraine war to Middle East conflicts and fears surrounding the US fiscal position, gold became a go-to shelter in times of uncertainty.
In India, gold peaked at ₹1 lakh per 10 grams on April 22, 2025, but has since fallen 4%, currently trading around ₹96,180.
However, the recent flattening of prices and minor corrections suggest a possible cool-down, as major global risks—like the Israel-Iran war and a feared trade war—have de-escalated.
With global uncertainty easing, gold’s rally has hit a pause button, though experts caution against writing it off. The US Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.5% since December 2024, but a rate cut spree could begin as early as September 2025, making non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.
Additionally, central banks remain bullish, with 43% planning to increase gold reserves, according to the World Gold Council.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, which has fallen over 10% this year and now sits below 100, is further weakening confidence in dollar-denominated assets—adding more tailwind for gold.
Bank of America predicts that gold could reach $4,000 per ounce by 2026, citing not missiles or wars, but potential fiscal instability triggered by former President Donald Trump’s proposed economic policies. A weakened dollar could become the catalyst for the next big leg of gold’s run.
While profit-booking and short-term corrections are likely, long-term investors are advised to maintain a 5-10% gold allocation in their portfolios. Citibank warns of a potential deeper pullback, offering long-term players an entry point for accumulation.
In uncertain global times, gold has historically proven to be resilient. And until global peace, fiscal stability, and economic recovery become the new norm, the sun may not have set on gold just yet.
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