Wildfire smoke could cause 1.4 million deaths annually by 2100 due to climate change. Vulnerable regions like sub-Saharan Africa face the greatest risks. Read more about the urgent health and environmental impacts of rising wildfire pollution.
Wildfire smoke could pose a serious global health risk by the year 2100, potentially causing up to 1.4 million deaths annually, according to new research. Scientists warn that even a moderate rise in global temperatures could lead to a sixfold increase in deaths caused by wildfire smoke compared to today’s levels.
The research, published in the journal Nature, shows that wildfires are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. They release massive amounts of smoke that can travel vast distances and impact people thousands of miles from the fire’s origin.
Experts used sophisticated computer simulations and machine learning and predicted how much smoke wildfires might produce in the future and the health risks associated with breathing in that smoke.
Bo Zheng, one of the lead researchers from Tsinghua University in China, “Our key finding is that climate change will substantially increase the health burden from wildfire smoke, even under moderate warming.”
If the world continues on a mid-range emissions path, scientists estimate that the amount of carbon released by wildfires could increase by approximately 23% between 2010-2014 and 2095-2099. This could result in 1.4 million deaths annually by the year 2100 due to the effects of breathing in polluted air from fires.
Zheng highlighted the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prepare for the health impacts of a changing climate. Wildfires are already more frequent and severe than ever before due to human activity and rising temperatures. Prolonged dry seasons and increased droughts are creating ideal conditions for fires to spread faster and burn more land.
Poorer Regions Will Suffer the Most
Elderly people are particularly vulnerable to air pollution. With rising heat, it is expected that more people will suffer serious health issues caused by wildfire smokes in the future. The consequences of wildfire smoke will not be evenly distributed around the world. Poorer countries are likely to experience the most significant rises in smoke-related deaths.
Researchers say that Africa, in particular, is expected to be heavily affected. The number of deaths could potentially increase elevenfold compared to current levels. Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to face the greatest burden of this issue.
Zheng explained that many regions in Africa are already prone to fires across grasslands, forests, and savannas.
In contrast, wealthier nations like those in Europe and North America may see death rates from smoke either remain stable or increase slightly. This is still a serious concern, but not as severe as poorer regions.
Researchers used machine learning to estimate land burned under different climate scenarios. They conducted simulations to model the levels of PM2.5. These tiny particles are particularly dangerous because they can enter the bloodstream, leading to serious health problems such as chronic bronchitis, lung cancer, and heart disease.
Health Warnings
While 1.4 million deaths per year is the current best estimate, Zheng acknowledged that there is still a lot of uncertainty. He emphasized the need for more data on PM2.5 from wildfires and improved health models to enhance the accuracy of future predictions.
Another major concern is that wildfire smoke does not remain confined and can cross international borders, affecting countries far from the actual fire sites. This makes international cooperation essential but there has not been sufficient effort in this area yet.
The authors point out that wildfire smoke can trigger health warnings in other countries and even continents. For example, a study recently published in Nature found that the massive wildfires in Canada in 2023 exposed more than 350 million people in North America and Europe to harmful air pollution. This pollution likely contributed to tens of thousands of deaths.
As the planet continues to warm, wildfire smoke is expected to become one of the most significant environmental health threats globally. Without strong action to reduce emissions and improve global health systems, millions of lives may be at risk.