Kolkata: Gold prices have hogged the headlines consistently over the past couple of years. The latest global announcement is that US broking major Morgan Stanley has Morgan Stanley slashed its gold price forecast for the second half of 2026 by almost 10%. While the earlier estimate was $5,700 per ounce, it has been revised sharply down to $5,200 per ounce. The analysts of the agency have pointed to a combination of factors — rising real yields, delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts and a significant six-week market selloff.
Fundamental shift?
Significantly, the downward revision has come against a backdrop of a six-week selloff which drove down the price of the yellow metal by almost 25% from its peak price levels. Reports stated that in one of the ramifications of this sell offs is the worst monthly performance since 2008. As a result of this headwind, the tone of gold has changed, Morgan Stanley has said and described it as a fundamental shift. It has originated from the combination of a “rare supply shock” and rising real interest rates from delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts, reports have stated. Morgan Stanley said that this shift prompted a rethink of their strategy by gold investors.
Less sentiment driven
It has also significantly said that in the coming days, gold will not just serve as a hedge against uncertainty but also will be a barometer of economic positions such as liquidity conditions, bond yields and monetary policy. Sentiment will have less of an influence on gold prices, which will be more shaped by data.
Morgan Stanley on Sensex in 2026
The Indian equity market seems to be on the threshold of a sharp recovery Morgan Stanley has stated in its report ‘A Bull Market on the Horizon’. According to the broking major, there are three distinct tailwinds — robust domestic momentum, improving earnings and low valuations.
Sensex projections by Dec 2026
Base case
Target: 95,000
Probability: 50%
Bear case
Target: 76,000
Probability: 20%
Bull case
Target: 1,07,000
Probability: 30%
It is clear that Morgan Stanley has attached the highest probability to the base case scenario. In other words, it is the most likely of the three scenarios.
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