The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday estimated crude oil prices to be at an average of $ 85 per barrel and rupee at 94 per dollar in the financial year 2026-27. The central bank has made this estimate in the first biennial monetary policy report of the current financial year released on Wednesday. According to the central bank, the estimate of crude oil price has been increased from $ 70 per barrel for the second half of the financial year 2025-26 to $ 85 per barrel for 2026-27. Similarly, the estimate of exchange rate of rupee against dollar has also been increased from Rs 88 to Rs 94 per dollar.
RBI’s estimate on oil
RBI said that the base estimate of crude oil price for the financial year 2026-27 has been kept at $ 85 per barrel and for the financial year 2027-28 at $ 75 per barrel, which is in line with the average prices of Brent crude oil futures. RBI said that during October, 2025 to December, 2025, a decline was seen in international crude oil prices and due to increased supply by OPEC Plus, the prices had come down to $ 63 per barrel. However, this situation suddenly changed in March 2026 and due to increasing global tensions, prices crossed $ 100 per barrel for the first time since November 2022.
Fall in crude oil prices
However, after two weeks of ceasefire, there is a decline in the prices of crude oil. In the international market, the price of American crude WTI is trading at $ 95.79 per barrel with a decline of 17 percent. Whereas during the trading session the prices of crude oil came down to $ 91 per barrel. On the other hand, crude oil of Gulf countries is also seen trading in decline. There is a fall of about 15 dollars per barrel in Brent. After which the prices are seen around $95 per barrel. Whereas during the trading session the prices of crude oil are seen at $ 92 per barrel.
RBI’s estimate on rupee
On the other hand, RBI has also increased the estimate of exchange rate of rupee against dollar from Rs 88 to Rs 94 per dollar. Well, there are many reasons behind this. During October 2025 to January 2026, the nominal exchange rate of the Indian Rupee remained in the range of Rs 87-92 per US dollar. From October 2025 to the first fortnight of November, the rupee remained stable and traded around Rs 88 per US dollar. At the end of November, INR showed a falling trend and in the second half of January 2026 it reached its all-time low, where it was about to touch the level of Rs 92 per US dollar. The main reasons for this were the outflow of capital from the portfolio, continuous demand for dollars and tightening of global financial conditions.
How much decline in the last one year?
However, the downward pressure increased further in March, when INR crossed the level of Rs 95 per US dollar in intraday trading. It also surpassed all its previous record lows amid concerns over the ongoing conflict in West Asia. In FY26, the Indian Rupee has registered its biggest annual decline in the last 14 years. During this period, it declined by 9.88 percent against the US dollar, which is the biggest decline since FY 12; At that time the rupee had weakened by 12.4 percent. The main reasons for this huge decline were the continuous outflow of foreign capital, high prices of crude oil and strengthening of the dollar globally, which kept constant pressure on the domestic currency. During this financial year, volatility in global financial markets and tightening of liquidity conditions also put additional pressure on the rupee.