BJP may have succeeded in establishing itself as the largest party in Maharashtra politics, but it has not yet become ‘self-reliant’. BJP needs the support of some party to form the government. Due to this political compulsion, BJP has to walk on the path of alliance, otherwise it has the power to win more seats by contesting the election alone. This time BJP will have to adjust not one but two allies, for which it may have to compromise on seats as well.
In the 2019 assembly elections, BJP contested in alliance with Shiv Sena, while in 2014 it contested alone. This time the number of allies of the party in the state has increased. In Maharashtra, BJP is in power in alliance with CM Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP. There is a plan for all three parties to fight the assembly elections together. In this way, BJP will have to decide the seat sharing formula with not one but two allies. Apart from these two allies, there is also the challenge of adjusting some small parties.
How was the electoral performance of BJP?
There are a total of 288 assembly seats in Maharashtra. In 2019, BJP contested the elections in alliance with Shiv Sena, while in the 2014 assembly elections, it tried its luck alone. In 2019, while being in alliance with Shiv Sena, BJP fielded candidates on 164 seats while Shiv Sena contested on 124 seats. BJP was successful in winning 105 out of 164 seats of its quota, while it stood second on 55 seats and third on 4 seats.
At the same time, look at the results of the 2014 assembly elections, when BJP did not form an alliance with any party. BJP had fielded candidates on 260 seats, out of which it was successful in winning 122 seats. Apart from this, BJP was at second position on 60 seats and third position on 56 seats. BJP emerged as the largest party in the state and was successful in making its own Chief Minister in the state for the first time.
What is politically beneficial for BJP?
One thing is clear in Maharashtra politics that contesting elections alone has been politically beneficial for BJP, but it has not benefited from fighting in alliance. This can be understood from the election results of 2014 and 2019. In Maharashtra, BJP has been contesting elections in alliance with Shiv Sena for a long time, but for the first time in the 2014 assembly elections, both fought alone. BJP realized its political strength in the state only after this election result, when it emerged as the largest party and succeeded in making its own Chief Minister for the first time.
BJP has a good political base in 240 seats of Maharashtra. Due to its alliance with Shiv Sena, it could not build its political base in the whole of Maharashtra, but when it fought alone in 2014, it became the largest party. As a result of this, when it contested the elections in 2019 in alliance with Shiv Sena, it contested on 164 seats. Earlier, while being with Shiv Sena, BJP used to play the role of younger brother and Shiv Sena was in the role of elder brother.
At present there is an alliance between the two parties
In the 2024 assembly elections, BJP has to share seats with Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP. In the NDA alliance, BJP will have to adjust some small parties along with Shiv Sena and NCP in seat sharing. Both Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar camps are demanding a good number of seats for themselves. In such a situation, BJP may have to contest elections on less than 164 seats of its quota in 2019. If BJP does this, then the seats may be reduced.
The more seats BJP contests in the assembly elections, less than 164, the more difficult it will be. BJP leaders who do not get tickets in seat sharing, or their seats go to Shiv Sena or NCP quota, will have only two options in such a situation – either accept the NDA candidate or contest the election from some other party. Its trends have already started coming, BJP leaders have started leaving the party from the seats going to Ajit Pawar’s camp.
Samarjit Singh Ghatge has left the party
Samarjit Singh Ghatge recently left BJP and joined Sharad Pawar’s NCP(S). Sharad Pawar has also announced to field him from the Assembly elections from Kagal seat of Kolhapur, the seat of Ajit Pawar’s close aide and Maharashtra’s Rural Development Minister Hasan Mushrif. Ghatge is not the only Maratha leader who sees his political future safe with Sharad Pawar’s party rather than BJP, but there is a long list of BJP leaders.
BJP leader Harshvardhan Patil is among those contesting from Indapur. Ranjit Singh Nimbalkar and Jaikumar Gore are not comfortable in the local politics of Solapur and Satara. Solapur BJP leaders Uttamrao Jankar and Prashant Paricharak also seem to be disillusioned with the party seeing the changing equations in the district. Due to the political equation of NCP with BJP in Maharashtra, the maths of assembly seats of many leaders has gone haywire. BJP and NCP workers have been fighting against each other in electoral politics for a long time, but now by coming together, the crisis for BJP leaders in contesting elections has deepened, especially on those seats where Ajit Pawar camp has MLAs.
BJP’s biggest challenge is seat sharing
There are about two dozen assembly seats across Maharashtra where BJP leaders are in the race for tickets against Ajit’s faction’s candidates because they had given a strong fight in 2019. Due to Ajit Pawar’s political change, BJP leaders are not sure of getting tickets on seats with NCP MLAs. There are many BJP leaders like Samarjit Singh Ghatge whose seats seem to be going out of their account. In such a situation, they have started changing sides for their political destination. Seat sharing is becoming a challenge for BJP even before it starts. It remains to be seen on how many seats BJP tries its luck in the electoral field this time and how many seats are politically affected due to seat sharing?
