There is a close contest between Congress and BJP in Rajasthan Assembly elections. While BJP is desperate to return to power, Congress is trying to retain it while parties like BSP and RLP are trying to become kingmakers. Due to this, there is a direct fight between Congress and BJP at some places in Rajasthan and a triangular fight is being seen on some seats. There are 29 assembly seats in the state where power can slip away due to some votes being cast here and there. This is the reason why the heartbeats of Congress and BJP have stopped.
Elections for 199 out of 200 assembly seats in Rajasthan are on 25th November. The election on one seat has been postponed due to the death of the Congress candidate. In 2018 also, elections were held on 199 seats, out of which the margin of victory or defeat in more than three dozen assembly seats was very less. Of these, the victory-defeat margin on 9 seats was less than one thousand votes, while on 29 seats the victory-defeat margin was less than 5 thousand votes. In this way, the victory or defeat on 38 seats was less than five thousand votes. At the same time, if we look at it in percentage, the difference of victory and defeat on 40 seats was between one to three percent.
seat won by narrow margin
The heartbeats of political parties have increased on the seats which were won or lost by small margins in the last assembly elections. In 2018, there was a margin of less than one thousand on 9 seats, which included Asind, Fatehpur, Dantaramgarh, Khetri, Marwar-Junction, Pilibanga, Pokaran, Siwana and Bundi assembly seats. Similarly, seats with margin of 5 thousand, Vallabhnagar, Tijara, Behror, Surajgarh, Mandawa Shahpura, Phulera, Bagru, Chaumun, Chaksu, Sangod, Sagwada, Aspur, Pachpadra, Chauhtan, Nadbai, Nawan, Makrana, Masuda, Beawar, Bhim. , Khandela, Khanpur, Ghatol, Chhabra, Bhopalgarh, Begun, Bandikui and Churu.
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Who occupies the seat with less margin?
In the 2018 assembly elections, there are 23 seats where the vote margin was less than 2 percent, whereas if we look at the margin of three percent, then it increases to 40 seats. Of these, on 13 seats the victory or defeat was decided by a margin of less than one percent, out of which 7 were won by BJP, 5 by Congress and one independent. There were 10 seats with one to two percent margin, out of which 6 were won by BJP and 4 by Congress.
At the same time, if we look at 17 seats in which victory-loss margin was less than two to three percent, then 4 seats were won by BJP, 5 seats by Congress, 2 by BSP, one seat each by RLP-BTP and three independents. At the same time, if we look at the figures of 38 seats with a margin of less than five thousand, BJP had won the maximum number of seats. BJP won 18 seats, Congress won 16 while the remaining four were won by independents, two by BSP and others.
Strategy of Congress and BJP
The role of candidates from independent and small parties played an important role in the victory and defeat of 38 seats with low margins in Rajasthan. This is the reason why this time only Congress and BJP parties have entered the election field with a new strategy. While Congress is trying to field independent candidates on low margin seats, BJP has played a gamble by giving a chance to its rebel candidates. While BJP has changed its candidates on assembly seats with low margins, Congress has placed its bets on the MLAs who won the elections as independents on many seats.
BJP has changed its candidates in the low margin seats of Jhunjhunu, Tijara, Surajgarh, Makrana, Ghatol, Bandikui, Churu, Fatehpur and Dantaramgarh, while Congress has given a chance to Khushveer Singh Jojawar, who was an independent MLA last time in Marwar Junction. Not only this, Congress has gambled on most of the candidates who became independent MLAs in 2018. Both Congress and BJP have tried to send a political message by expelling the rebels from the party when they did not agree after all the efforts.
In the assembly elections in Rajasthan, both BJP and Congress have to work hard to capture power. The defeat of Congress’s CP Joshi by one vote in Nathdwara seat is still famous among the people. CP Joshi was the state president of Congress in the 2008 elections and was considered a contender for the post of CM due to his closeness to Rahul Gandhi, but lost from Nathdwara seat by one vote. Due to this, he could not become CM and Ashok Gehlot was crowned in his place. This is the reason why winning or losing by a small margin in Rajasthan can spoil the future of any leader and the party.
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BJP created a record in 2018 by winning by small margins in the areas. Since 1962, no sitting MLA had recaptured Sivana in Barmer district, but BJP’s Hamir Singh Bhayal has broken the trend and the party has played the game again. BJP is busy uniting its leaders to ensure victory on seats with small margins and has also kept senior leaders as observers.
Even though there has been a trend of change of power in Rajasthan every five years, Congress has formed the government in the state twice in the last two decades, but has been unable to get majority. Won 96 seats in 2008 and 100 seats in 2018. In 2018, he played a role in depriving the rebel Congress candidates of majority. Of the 15 seats that Congress had won by a small margin, two were contested by senior leaders who are considered staunch supporters of the Gehlot government. The four independent MLAs who won by a small margin were close to Gehlot, who had overpowered Pilot by gathering their support. This time, Congress rebels are contesting elections on about 13 seats and the real test is for Gehlot. In such a situation, it remains to be seen how Congress succeeds in saving the seats with less margin.
