Campaigning for Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections will come to an end this evening. There are 2533 candidates in the fray for 230 seats in the state, whose fate will be decided by voters on Friday (November 17). BJP is fighting to save power and Congress is desperate to return to power while parties like SP-BSP are trying to become the third force. In such a situation, different types of political changes are visible in different areas of Madhya Pradesh.
Madhya Pradesh is divided into six different parts politically and geographically. Bundelkhand, Chambal-Gwalior, Vindhya, Malwa-Nimar, Mahakaushal and central region. 230 seats of the state are divided in these six areas. In some areas the dominance of Congress is visible and in some BJP’s dominance while in some places there is a close contest. In some areas the rebels have spoiled the game and in some places a triangular contest seems to be taking place. In this way, what are the political calculations and equations of all the six regions of the state?
Who will dominate in Mahakaushal?
Mahakaushal area of Madhya Pradesh has 38 assembly seats, on which the fate of 402 candidates is at stake. This area includes seats of Jabalpur, Chhindwara, Katni, Seoni, Narsinghpur, Mandla, Dindori and Balaghat districts. This has been a stronghold of both BJP and Congress. Last time, Congress was successful in ousting BJP from power only by performing better from this region. 2018
In 2013, out of 38 seats in Mahakaushal, Congress was successful in winning 24 seats and BJP was successful in winning 13 seats whereas in 2013, BJP had won 24 seats while Congress was limited to 13 seats. This time there is a close contest between Congress and BJP, but due to the tribal dominated area, the alliance of BSP and Gondwana Party has made the contest triangular on some seats.
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Kamal Nath’s real political skills are also tested in Mahakaushal area, because his home area is Chhidwara. The entire campaign of the party in this area is focused on him and he is also the face of the post of Chief Minister. This time to settle the score of BJP’s 2018 defeat
Four MPs including its two Union Ministers have been fielded from this area. There are 13 seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes in Mahakaushal area. Congress had won 11 of these seats in the last elections while BJP had won the remaining two seats. This is the reason why this time the focus of all the parties is on tribal votes.
Who will be king in Gwalior-Chambal?
There are 34 assembly seats in the northern region of Madhya Pradesh and the Gwalior-Chambal region adjacent to UP, where the fate of about three hundred and fifty candidates is at stake. The credibility of Jyotiraditya Scindia and Union Minister Narendra Singh Tomar is at stake. The reputation of Congress leaders like Digvijay Singh and Govind Singh is at stake. In 2018, Congress had defeated BJP in this area. Out of 34 seats in Gwalior-Chambal region, Congress got 27, BJP five and others got two seats. This area also became the reason for Kamal Nath being out of power within 15 months. Of the two dozen Congress MLAs who switched sides in 2020, 16 MLAs were from this area.
Gwalior-Chambal area used to belong to BJP till 2018, in 2013, out of 34 seats in this area, 20 seats were won by BJP, 12 seats by Congress and two seats by BSP. The results were similar in 2008 also. Scindia’s credibility is at stake, but Digvijay has increased the challenge of BJP. Out of 34 seats, a direct fight is seen between Congress and BJP on 25 seats and a triangular contest is seen on 9 seats. In such a situation, it remains to be seen who dominates the Chambal-Gwalior belt.
Who will play in Bundelkhand-Vindhya?
Bundelkhand, bordering Uttar Pradesh, has 30 seats and Vindhya region has 26 seats. In this way, there are a total of 56 seats in both the regions. In the last elections, BJP got maximum seats from these two areas. Congress was wiped out from Vindhya. BJP had won 38 seats and Congress 16 seats. Vindhya region is considered to be Brahmin influenced while Bundelkhand Dalit and OBC castes have the power to make or break the game. Due to the border of UP, SP and BSP are also in the electoral fray with full strength, due to which the heartbeat of Congress and BJP has increased. Out of 56 seats in these two areas, a triangular contest is being considered for about a dozen seats.
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Multiplication of 36 seats in the central region
The area comprising the districts surrounding the state capital Bhopal is called the central region, there are 36 assembly seats here. This area has always been a stronghold of BJP. Bhopal, Sehore, Rajgarh, Raisen, Vidisha, Narmadapuram, Harda and Betul districts are covered. In 2018, out of 36 seats in the central region, BJP won 23 seats and Congress won 13 seats. This area is considered to be the area of Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan and also includes his Budhni seat. This time it is believed that there will be a direct contest between Congress and BJP, but the guarantee given by Congress has increased the concern of BJP.
Who will dominate in Malwa Nimar?
The key to power in Madhya Pradesh lies with the Malwa-Nimar region. Whichever party is successful in winning this area in the state, only it gets the chance to come to power. This area has maximum 66 assembly seats. In 2018, out of these 66 seats, Congress was successful in winning 35 seats and BJP 28 seats. In this tribal and OBC dominated area, BJP is facing tough challenges on many seats, while in many seats the rebels have increased the tension on the seats. Congress is hopeful of getting political benefits in this area, but it is becoming difficult to solve the caste equation.
Last time, tribal voters were angry with BJP and Jais too gave Congress lead by harming BJP, but this time the contest is going to be tough. BJP and Congress are facing tough competition from BSP and SP on some seats. The reason for this is that the leaders who were not given tickets by BJP and Congress have joined the hands of these parties. Due to this, there has been a triangular contest on many seats. In such a situation, it has to be seen who dominates the Malwa-Nimar region which opens the door to MP’s power?
