In Rajasthan Assembly elections, both Congress and BJP parties are having to fight with their rebel leaders. Despite all efforts to woo the rebel leaders, 737 independent candidates are in the fray. There are many candidates contesting the elections as independent candidates, who, if they could not get tickets from BJP and Congress, have filed their nomination as independent candidates. Compared to the 2018 elections, this time there may be fewer independent candidates, but there are more people rebelling against Congress and BJP.
35 leaders rebelling against BJP and Congress are contesting the elections, due to which the tension between both the parties has increased. However, if we look at the electoral trend of Rajasthan, it is clear that its rebels have an upper hand over BJP, neither are they successful in winning themselves nor do they allow the party candidate to win, whereas the Congress rebels may spoil the party’s mathematics, but Are successful in creating their own game. In such a situation, it remains to be seen whether the rebels will make their fortune this time or will they spoil the equation of the party?
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Out of 200 seats of Rajasthan Assembly, they are betting on independent candidates on 35 seats. In this state which has a bipolar contest between BJP and Congress, this time the rebel leaders of both the parties have created a triangular situation on many seats. There are 135 such seats in the state, where the fight is only between BJP and Congress, while a triangular contest is being considered on 35 seats and a quadrangular contest on about 20 seats. In this way, the tension between BJP and Congress, which are hoping to come to power, has increased.
Let us tell you that in the 2018 Rajasthan Assembly elections, 15 rebel candidates of Congress had contested while BJP also had around 14 candidates. Eleven leaders who rebelled against the Congress and contested the elections were successful in becoming MLAs, whereas not a single leader who rebelled against the BJP became an MLA himself nor did he allow the BJP candidate to become an MLA. Congress got the political advantage of fielding rebel candidates of BJP. Congress was successful in winning those seats where the rebels had rebelled against BJP.
Rebellion proved costly for BJP
BJP had canceled the tickets of about 70 sitting MLAs in the 2018 elections, out of which a large number of rebel candidates had fielded. Vasundhara Raje had convinced all the leaders, but even after that more than a dozen rebels remained firm in the field. Kuldeep Dhankhar, Devi Singh Shekhawat, Dhan Singh Rawat, Hem Singh Bhadana, who rebelled against BJP and contested the elections, stood second. Wherever their rebellion took place, BJP candidates also had to face defeat.
For example, Dhan Singh Rawat stood third in Banswara seat, but BJP’s Harku Maida lost the election due to cutting of more than 32 thousand votes. Surendra Goyal from Jaitaran seat, Rajkumar Rinwa from Ratangarh, Omprakash Hoodla from Mahua seat, Anita Katara from Sagwara, Devendra Katara from Dungarpur, Kisnaram Nai from Sri Dungargarh and Geeta Verma from Sikrai seat neither won themselves nor allowed the BJP candidate to win.
Congress rebels played politics
Even though the BJP rebels could not register victory, more than 90 percent of the candidates who rebelled against the Congress and contested the elections were successful in becoming MLAs. In 2018, when they did not get tickets from Congress, about 15 leaders rebelled and contested as independent candidates. Out of these 15 rebels, 11 were successful in winning. In the last elections, a total of 13 independent MLAs were elected, out of which 11 Congress rebels won. When the Congress government was formed, Gehlot was successful in getting the support of all the 13 independent MLAs. Of these, CM Gehlot has also given Congress tickets to 10 of them this time. That is, in this election he is contesting as a Congress candidate.
In 2018, Rajkumar Gaur, Mahadev Singh, Babulal Nagar, Baljeet Yadav, Khushveer Singh, Sanyam Lodha, Ramila Khadiya, Laxman Meena, Alok Beniwal and Ramkesh Meena contested the elections as independent candidates from Congress and won by a huge margin. Similarly, Om Prakash Hoodla was a rebel of BJP who has been declared the official candidate of Congress this time. In 2013, Rajkumar Gaur, Mahadev Singh, Babulal Nagar, Baljeet Yadav, Khushveer Singh, Sanyam Lodha, Ramila Khadiya, Laxman Meena, Alok Beniwal, Ramkesh Meena, who rebelled against the Congress and ran as an independent candidate, were successful in winning.
Congress rebels entered the field
Congress rebels are Johari Lal, sitting MLA from Rajgarh-Laxmangarh, sitting MLA Khiladi Lal Bairwa from Baseri, Kanhaiyalal Jhanwar from Nokha, Virendra Beniwal from Lunkaransar, Naresh Meena from Chhabra, Om Bishnoi from Sadulshahr, Aziz Azad from Sawai Madhopur, Habibur Rahman from Nagaur, Alok Beniwal from Shahpura and Rameshwar Dadhich from Sursagar and others are contesting as rebels. In this way, player Lal Bairwa, who has contested as an independent candidate from Baseri, is considered close to Sachin Pilot, while Rameshwar Dadhich, who has been the mayor of Jodhpur, is close to CM Ashok Gehlot.
BJP rebels increase tension
In Rajasthan, the number of rebels in BJP is more than that of Congress. Five former ministers are also among the leaders who rebelled against BJP and contested the elections. BJP rebels Chandrabhan Singh Akya, sitting MLA from Chittorgarh, MLA from Shahpura (Bhilwara) Kailash Meghwal, Rajpal Singh Shekhawat from Jhotwara seat, Yunus Khan from Didwana, Madan Mohan Singhal from Kaman, Banshidhar Bajiya from Khandela are trying their luck in the election field.
Kailash Meghwal, Rajpal Singh Shekhawat and Yunus Khan are considered close to Vasundhara Raje. Apart from this, youth leader Ravindra Singh Bhati has contested from Shiv seat as an independent candidate. Bhati had joined BJP a few days ago, but since the party did not give him the ticket, he became a rebel and jumped into the elections. When Bhati was contesting the student union elections, ABVP did not give him the ticket and he won as an independent candidate. This time when BJP did not field a candidate, they again became rebels.
Why did the rebels increase the challenge?
This time in Rajasthan, a close contest is being considered between Congress and BJP. In such a situation, the rebel tension has increased because in the 2018 elections, there were 29 seats where the difference between victory and defeat was between 1000 to 5000 votes. In this, 13 were won by BJP, 9 by Congress, 4 others and 3 independent candidates. At the same time, there were 9 seats where victory and defeat were based on less than 1000 votes. In such a situation, if the candidate who rebelled against BJP and Congress and contested as an independent candidate manages to get even four to five thousand votes, will his hopes of returning to power be dashed?
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