Real Madrid and Manchester City have faced each other frequently in recent years. Their upcoming clash at Santiago Bernabeu marks their 15th meeting in the Champions League since their first encounter in September 2012, where Madrid won 3-2. This fixture is the most-played in the competition, with significant stakes as both teams vie for a top-eight finish and automatic qualification for the last 16.
The Opta supercomputer has simulated this match 10,000 times, predicting a tight contest. Madrid emerged victorious in 38.2% of simulations, while City won in 37.7%, with 24.1% ending in a draw. City’s chances of winning the Champions League again stand at 10%, ranking them fourth behind Arsenal, Bayern Munich, and Paris Saint-Germain.
Kylian Mbappe has been crucial for Real Madrid, scoring 25 goals since the Club World Cup ended. He accounts for 56.8% of Madrid’s total goals this season. In the Champions League, Mbappe has scored nine goals in five games, matching Cristiano Ronaldo’s record for Madrid.
Erling Haaland remains a key figure for City despite a slight dip in form. He scored his 100th Premier League goal recently and has netted one of City’s last 14 goals across all competitions. Haaland’s overall tally stands at 20 goals this season.
This match also features an intriguing managerial battle between former midfield maestros Xabi Alonso and Pep Guardiola. Alonso played under Guardiola at Bayern Munich from 2014 to 2016, making 79 appearances during that period. Their reunion adds another layer to this already captivating rivalry.
Guardiola has faced Real Madrid on numerous occasions but hasn’t beaten them in his last four attempts (two draws and two losses). His team conceded ten goals across these matches, averaging 2.5 per game.
Recent Form and Challenges
Xabi Alonso faces pressure after a recent poor run with Real Madrid, including a surprising defeat to Celta Vigo where Fran Garcia and Alvaro Carreras were sent off. Since beating Valencia on November 1st, Madrid have won only two of their last seven matches across all competitions.
City approach this match buoyed by closing the gap to Arsenal at the top of the Premier League following a win over Sunderland. Ruben Dias, Josko Gvardiol, and Phil Foden scored in that match as City shared goals due to Haaland’s slight dip in form.
Supporting Cast Contributions
Phil Foden has been instrumental for City lately, contributing to nine goals across seven starts since November (seven goals and two assists). Only Kylian Mbappe and Deniz Undav have more goal involvements among players from Europe’s top five leagues during this period.
Rayan Cherki impressed against Sunderland with two assists, including a rabona cross for Foden’s goal. Jeremy Doku has also excelled recently by creating more open-play chances than any other player from Europe’s top five divisions since November began.
Madrid’s reliance on Mbappe contrasts with City’s collective effort as they prepare for another thrilling encounter between these European giants.