Bihar, long regarded as India’s political bellwether, has once again emerged as a key indicator of the country’s electoral mood.
Bellwether states often set the trend for national politics, and Bihar’s outcome is expected to shape strategies for upcoming polls in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Assam ahead of the 2029 general elections.
With 40 parliamentary seats, Bihar remains a politically vital state for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The state’s shifting caste and community equations make its verdict even more significant for India’s political landscape.
Historic voter turnout marks a new record
The 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly elections witnessed a – the highest since 1951, according to the Election Commission of India (ECI).
Women outpaced men in participation, with a 71.6 per cent turnout compared to 62.8 per cent for male voters across both phases. The second phase saw a slightly higher turnout at 68.76 per cent, compared to 65.06 per cent in the first phase held on November 6.
Katihar district topped the charts with 78.82 per cent polling, followed by Kishanganj at 78.13 per cent and Purnia at 76.09 per cent. Nawada recorded the lowest at 57.85 per cent.
Among key constituencies, Supaul registered 70.83 per cent, Sasaram 62.10 per cent, Mohania 68.24 per cent, and Gaya Town 58.43 per cent. Over 7.4 crore voters across 38 districts decided the fate of 2,616 candidates.
ECI calls the polls “historic”
Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar hailed the election as “historic,” praising the participation of over 7.5 crore voters in the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the rolls. He credited around 1.76 lakh booth-level agents and election workers for their “tireless and transparent efforts.”
“The 2025 Bihar Assembly elections were historic. First, over 7.5 crore voters participated in the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the voters’ list… not a single appeal was received by any of Bihar’s 38 District Magistrates regarding the SIR,” he said.
He added, “Today, voters have also made history in independent India. They cast the highest percentage of votes in all elections held since 1951, at approximately 66.9%. Women have expressed their complete faith in the Election Commission, resulting in the highest voter turnout ever, at 71%.”
Stories of participation and peaceful polls
The spirit of democracy was highlighted when 111-year-old Nasima Khatun cast her vote in Supaul district. “I have cast my vote and fulfilled my duty,” she said from her wheelchair.
Bihar Congress president Rajesh Ram arrived in an e-rickshaw to vote, calling the polls the “festival of democracy.” However, voting wasn’t without incident – a scuffle between Congress and BJP supporters broke out in Araria during the second phase.
Exit polls favour NDA comeback
Exit polls have , suggesting that the ruling alliance could comfortably cross the majority mark in the 243-member Assembly.
Peoples Pulse survey gave NDA 133-159 seats, Mahagathbandhan 75-101, and Jan Suraaj 0-5. JVC survey projected NDA 135-150, MGB 88-103. DVC Research forecast NDA 137-152 and MGB 83-98. P-Marq predicted the NDA to win 142-162 seats, while Mahagathbandhan may secure 80-98.
Janata Dal (United) claimed the NDA had received a “historic mandate.” In a post on X, the party said, “Bihar has given the NDA a historic mandate. Now many people will blame the EVMs.”
BJP hails Modi’s appeal, opposition dismisses projections
BJP leader Syed Shahnawaz Hussain said, “The long queues of people indicated that the NDA will form the government… Rahul Gandhi has completely flopped.”
Opposition leaders, however, rejected the exit poll predictions. Congress MP Tariq Anwar said, “Exit polls are not accurate. They are only a speculation.” RJD leader Mrityunjay Tiwari added, “Exit polls have proven wrong in the past and will prove wrong in the future as well.”
He asserted that “the government of Mahagathbandhan and Tejashwi Yadav will be formed in Bihar.”
Looking ahead to counting day
Vote counting is scheduled for November 14.
In the 2020 election, the NDA had secured 125 seats and the Mahagathbandhan 110. The BJP won 74, JD(U) 43, RJD 75 and Congress 19.
As Bihar once again takes centre stage in India’s electoral narrative, the state’s bellwether status makes this verdict more than just a regional outcome – it’s a signal of the national mood ahead of 2029.