With around 70 percent voting, the battle of Nathnagar has revolved around caste equations. Here the main contest is between LJP (R)’s Mithun Kumar Yadav and RJD candidate Z Hasan, but Jansuraj candidate Ajay Rai has also made the equation interesting.
Mithun Yadav has complicated the equation by making a dent in the Yadav voters of his own community. If they are successful in attracting 30 to 35 percent Yadav votes, the result may be unexpected. On the other hand, RJD candidate Z Hasan has succeeded in attracting voters from Gangotri community as well as other backward castes. At the same time, Ajay Rai has made a dent in the vote bank of Dhanuk community, due to which the contest has become a close contest.
caste equation of nathnagar
There are around 85 thousand Muslim voters, 42 thousand from Gangotri community, 41 thousand from Yadav, 19,050 from Dhanuk, 26 thousand from Kushwaha, 6,150 from Kurmi, 25,531 from upper caste, 52,429 from Mahadalit and Tanti community, 23,093 from Teli-Suri and others and 39,404 voters from other castes. The total number of voters is 3,35,528. In the 2020 assembly elections, RJD’s Ali Ashraf Siddiqui defeated JDU’s Laxmikant Mandal by 7,756 votes.
At that time the ‘Mai’ equation (Muslim-Yadav) played a decisive role. But, in the 2025 elections, this equation has shifted a bit in Yadav dominated booths. On the other hand, there was the largest queue of voters at the polling station dominated by Muslims and Yadavs. Muslims have waited a lot, which will benefit RJD.
This time, however, the equation has shifted a bit in Yadav dominated areas, which will benefit Mithun. Whereas there has been tremendous voting in Muslim dominated booths, due to which RJD is likely to benefit.
Here, till 2 pm, 607 out of 873 votes were cast at booth number 53 of Bhatodia, while 442 out of 792 votes were cast at booth number 52. The continuously increasing voting percentage has made it clear that the contest in Nathnagar will be completely tough this time.