Crude oil prices in the international market have reached a six-month high due to increasing tension between America and Iran. Geopolitical uncertainty has strengthened market sentiment and investors are cautious about potential supply disruptions.
Crude oil with March expiry on MCX on February 20, 2026 was seen trading flat at around Rs 6,050 per barrel after initial gains. Whereas in the global market, Brent crude reached around $71.99 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached around $67.05. This week a rise of about 6% has been recorded in Brent and more than 5% in WTI.
Tension increased due to Trump’s ultimatum
The main reason for the rise is US President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran, in which pressure has been created to negotiate on the nuclear deal within 1015 days. America has also increased its military presence in the Middle East, which has increased the possibility of long-term conflict.
Additionally, Iran and Russia’s joint naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled nuclear negotiations have increased the risk premium. This sea route is very important for about 20% of the world’s oil supply. On the other hand, there is concern that supply may be affected due to the interruption in Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
Demand-supply signals also strong
Analysts say that the market is showing tightness due to decreasing crude oil reserves in America and China, while OPEC+ is working on a plan to increase production. Despite this, geopolitical risks are supporting prices.
What do technical signals say?
According to experts at SAMCO Securities, WTI has made a strong recovery from $55 and can go up to $7273 if it gets a breakout above $66. On MCX, Rs 6,300 is considered to be the next resistance and Rs 6,000 is considered to be the strong support. At present, there is a bullish trend in the market, but fluctuations may also continue.