The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has registered a massive win in the bypoll for the Nuapada assembly constituency in Odisha. According to the results announced on Friday (November 14), BJP candidate Jay Dholakia trounced Congress candidate Ghasi Ram Majhi by over 83,748 votes.
Dholakia got 123,869 votes against Majhi’s 40,121. Biju Janata Dal (BJD) candidate and former minister Snehangini Chhuria finished third with 38,408 votes. What was initially expected to be a stiff triangular fight turned out to be a one-sided contest.
BJP state president Manmohan Samal attributed the emphatic win to people’s faith in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision and Subhadra Yojana, a woman-centric welfare scheme, started by the Odisha government. Congress candidate Ghasi Ram Majhi, on the other hand, accused that the BJP bought votes by paying Rs 5,000 for each vote.
The bypoll, held on November 11, was necessitated by the death of Rajendra Dholakia, Jay Dholakia’s father, who represented the constituency for the BJD. After his death, the BJP lost no time to induct Jay Dholakia into the party and made him its candidate.
Why a close contest was expected
Ruling parties usually win by-polls, barring few exceptions. However, a close contest was expected in Nuapada at the beginning for three reasons. First, the seat was held by the BJD and it fielded Churia, a former minister and firebrand woman leader, with a view to retain it; second, as an independent candidate, Majhi gave a close fight, bagging 50,941 votes against Rajendra Dholakia’s 61,822. Many observers had thought that he could’ve done wonders with Congress support; and third, Jay Dholakia was a political greenhorn.
Politically, the bypoll was important for three major political forces – the BJP, the BJD and the Congress. Odisha chief minister Mohan Majhi could not have afforded a loss while trying to stabilise his hold over the government amid criticism – both inside and outside his party – that he lacked authority.
Jay Dholakia submits his nomination papers. Photo: X/@UpasnaMohapatra
For the BJD, retaining the seat was important to prove that the BJD is still a force to reckon with. The Congress on the other hand had nothing to lose in case of Majhi’s win. It had the opportunity to prove that it had a future in Odisha politics.
As campaigning began for the bypolls, a constituency – which usually makes headlines for neglect, poverty and migration – suddenly became the centre of Odisha’s political excitement. The residents were bedazzled by streams of SUVs, crisscrossing the landscape and hoards of politicians of all hues.
As the campaign intensified, it became evident that the BJP will leave no stone unturned to win the contest. Clearly, its resources – cadres strength and financial – outpaced that of the BJD by miles.
Mobilisation, cadre and resources
Chief minister Majhi repeatedly visited the constituency holding rallies and road shows, while Chhattisgarh chief minister Vishnu Deo Sai also campaigned for the party candidate. BJP leaders and cadres of Odisha and Chhattisgarh camped in the constituency to reach out to the electorate.
What went in favour of the BJP was the mobilisation of cadres and resources. Rajendra Dholakia had a sizeable following across party lines because of his philanthropy. According to a BJP leader, Jay Dholakia was told to concentrate more on his fathers’ followers and leave the rest to party leaders.
The BJD tried to match the BJP’s resources with Patnaik’s rallies and road shows but its resources and mobilisation were a shadow of what it was when the party was in power. Deprived of financial resources, Congress’ campaign was low-key; they depended on door to door campaigns.
State Congress president Bhakta Das was most visible during the campaign trail. No national leader campaigned for the party candidate.
By the time of the end of campaigning, it was no more a stiff triangular fight with Jay Dholakia having a clear edge and Majhi and Chhuria wrestling for second position. The election results reflected this with Dholakia way ahead of the rest of the two.
Majhi’s defeat
It is surprising that Majhi, a tribal leader, got 10,820 votes less than what he had received as an independent candidate in the 2024 assembly election despite higher voter turnout (83%) this time. Nuapada has over one lakh Scheduled Tribe and 35,000 Scheduled Caste (SC) votes.
According to observers, after Majhi was denied a Congress ticket in the 2024 election, the tribal community, irrespective of party lines, backed and funded him to contest independently. After the election, many tribal leaders of the BJP and BJD supporting Majhi were suspended for supporting him.
But this time, when he contested as a Congress candidate, the same local tribal leaders with affiliation to the BJP and BJD moved away from him. On the other hand, the entry of Chhuria, an SC leader, as the BJD candidate divided the SC voters who usually support the Congress.
Nonetheless, the second position secured by the Congress candidate may give the party a glimmer of hope for a revival. Chhuria’s humiliating defeat has put a question mark on the electoral pull of Patnaik, who ruled Odisha for almost a quarter century, and the survival of the BJD as a party. On the other hand, Dholakia’s emphatic win may help chief minister Mohan Majhi strengthen his grip over the party as well as the government.