The by-election results in Rajasthan’s Anta have dealt a major blow to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while giving the Congress fresh energy ahead of the upcoming panchayat and municipal elections.
Especially after its defeats in recent by-elections, this victory has come as a lifeline for the Congress.
More than Congress’s win, the political chatter is focused on the BJP’s loss. Political analysts believe that had the BJP won, all the credit would have gone to Vasundhara Raje – so now the blame for the defeat is being placed on her. It is being said that Hadoti’s power politics and the behind-the-scenes power game outweighed Raje’s strategy this time.
Vasundhara Raje had kept the entire election campaign in her own hands. Her Jhalawar team was on the ground. Chief Minister Bhajanlal Sharma and BJP MP Madan Rathore held roadshows, but the overall election management remained with Raje and her son Dushyant. As a result, the micro-management by the government and the organisation – visible in previous elections – was missing this time. There was prolonged infighting in the BJP over ticket distribution. After several rounds of meetings, the party eventually gave the ticket to local leader Morpal Suman, Raje’s preferred choice. But this move backfired.
Political circles believe that if the BJP had given the ticket to someone from the family of the previous winner, Kanwarpal Meena, or to Prabhulal Saini, who had defeated Pramod Jain Bhaya earlier, the outcome might have been different.
The BJP even failed to consolidate its traditional vote bank. It was believed that Independent candidate Naresh Meena would cause significant damage to the Congress, but instead, he managed to cut into the BJP’s vote base. Securing over 50,000 votes as an independent candidate and finishing only 128 votes behind the BJP candidate is considered a major achievement for Naresh Meena. He fought strongly, although he did not win. This is the third election in the last 20 months where Naresh Meena has been defeated – but he has proven that, whether the seat is Chhabra, Deoli, or Anta, he can challenge big parties.
Better booth management could have also changed the result.
This by-election also proved political pundits and the betting markets wrong. Just two days earlier, the Phalodi betting market had predicted Pramod Bhaya in third place. But heavy polling and strong turnout from women voters altered the picture. Over the past few years, Bhaya has built a solid grassroots presence. His involvement in ‘gaushalas’, mass marriage events, and religious activities helped him cultivate social support. The party also put its full strength behind him.
State Congress President Govind Singh Dotasra assigned responsibilities down to the gram panchayat level. Sachin Pilot held roadshows. Leader of the Opposition Tikaram Jully campaigned door-to-door. Ashok Chandna’s management as in charge was effective. On the last day of campaigning, Ashok Gehlot reached Anta to prevent the Mali community’s vote from shifting to the BJP -and the impact was visible.
The BJP and Naresh Meena tried to make corruption allegations against Pramod Bhaya a central election issue, but the aggressive attacks ended up creating sympathy for Bhaya. Congress repeatedly challenged that if there were real charges, why was the BJP government not taking action? Bhaya, on the other hand, portrayed Naresh Meena as the BJP’s ‘B-team,’ which consolidated Congress’s vote. Ultimately, Pramod Bhaya won by a margin of 15,594 votes. After his previous defeat, he has made a strong comeback. For the first time, he is entering the Assembly as a legislator while being in the Opposition; earlier, he had always won when Congress was in power. This victory has strengthened Govind Singh Dotasra’s strategic hold as state Congress president and energized the party ahead of the upcoming municipal and panchayat elections.
On the other hand, Naresh Meena now faces a moment of introspection – why he is unable to win despite contesting repeatedly. There is also the question of whether he should join a national or regional party, or form his own party and prepare for the 2028 Assembly elections.