By late morning on Friday (November 14, 2025), the Bihar verdict seems all but written. Early leads at 11 a.m. showed the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) powering towards a sweeping victory, well past the halfway mark and leading in 185 of the 243 seats. In fact, it seems to be outperforming its own expectation, smashing way past its lofty “160 paar” target. Not just the big guns — BJP and JD(U) — but every partner in the alliance seems to be performing far better than pre-poll predictions.
NDA landslide loading as alliance partners post strong strike rates
The ruling coalition’s tally surged soon after counting began at 8 a.m., helped initially by postal ballots, which have long been considered a reliable indicator of momentum. By noon, the NDA was ahead in well over 180 seats, setting the tone for what increasingly looks like a historic mandate.
JD(U) edges ahead in the internal race
For now, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) holds a razor-thin lead in the alliance’s internal contest for the top position. The numbers as of 12 p.m. indicate an internal tussle brewing over who emerges as the “big brother” in the alliance. JD(U) was ahead in 77 of the 101 seats it contested, placing it marginally above the BJP, which led in 84 of its 101 seats. The picture suggests that both parties are commanding wide support, even as the question of who emerges as the “big brother” remains delicately poised.
This is the first time since 2005 that the two major allies contested an equal number of seats—an arrangement the BJP had insisted upon. As it turns out, the parity has produced a neck-and-neck performance.
Smaller allies punch above their weight
Chirag Paswan’s LJP(RV) posted one of the strongest morning performances, leading in 22 of 29 seats. By all counts, this is an impressive show for a smaller party and a signal of decisive consolidation in its core pockets. Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) also recorded a healthy early trend, ahead in four of six seats. Meanwhile, Upendra Kushwaha-led Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) led in two of its six constituencies.
Strike rates at 12 p.m.
Here is a snapshot of how each partner is faring, measured by leads against seats contested:
| Party | Seats Contested | Leads at 11 a.m. | Strike Rate (%) |
| JD(U) | 101 | 77 | 76.2% |
| BJP | 101 | 84 | 83.1% |
| LJP(RV) | 29 | 22 | 75.8% |
| HAM(S) | 6 | 5 | 83.3% |
| RLM | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
Eyes on the final picture
Exit polls had hinted at an NDA advantage, but the scale emerging on counting day has exceeded expectations. As numbers stabilise later today, all eyes are now on whether Nitish Kumar will return for a record tenth term. And more importantly, what that mandate means for Bihar’s political and social landscape.