The 2025 Global Carbon Budget reports a new record for fossil fuel CO₂ emissions. Discover why the 1.5°C target is now out of reach & what it means for our planet.
Fossil fuel emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) have reached a new high in 2025, according to the latest findings from the Global Carbon Project. The 2025 Global Carbon Budget predicts that fossil fuels will produce 38.1 billion tonnes of CO₂ this year, a 1.1% increase compared to 2024.
Despite efforts by many countries to shift to cleaner energy, the progress made is not sufficient to meet the rising global energy demand. Emissions from land-use changes, such as deforestation, are expected to decrease slightly to 4.1 billion tonnes. However, this reduction is not enough to lower total global CO₂ emissions below the record set last year.
The end of the 2023-24 El Niño weather pattern, which led to extreme heat and drought in many areas, has contributed to the recovery of the planet’s natural carbon sinks, including forests, soils, and oceans that absorb CO₂.
Climate Change Weakening Earth’s CO₂ Absorption
The latest report, published alongside a study in the journal Nature, explains how climate change is impacting the planet’s ability to absorb carbon.
Since 1960, 8% of the rise in atmospheric CO₂ levels has been caused by climate change reducing the effectiveness of land and ocean carbon sinks. This means the Earth is now less capable of absorbing the CO₂ we emit. The report also warns that the remaining carbon budget, the total amount of CO₂ that can still be emitted if we are to limit global warming to 1.5°C, is nearly used up.
With emissions continuing to rise, scientists say it is no longer realistic to aim for the 1.5°C target. Climate change is intensifying the problem, making it even more urgent to reduce emissions.
Professor Corinne Le Quéré from the University of East Anglia noted that there has been visible progress: “Efforts to tackle climate change are visible, with 35 countries succeeding in reducing their emissions while growing their economies, twice as much as a decade ago, and important progress in reducing reliance on fossil fuels elsewhere.”
But this progress is still too fragile. Global emissions are not yet falling overall, and the impact of climate change on the planet’s carbon sinks makes it even more urgent to act.
Regional Trends in 2025
The report highlights varying emission trends around the world:
• China is expected to see a 0.4% increase in emissions, a slower rate than in previous years, due to moderate energy demand and rapid renewable growth.
• India is projected to see a 1.4% rise in emissions, also a slower rate. An early monsoon reduced the need for cooling, and strong renewable growth kept coal use almost flat.
• The United States and the European Union are both expected to see small rises in emissions this year, 1.9% and 0.4% respectively, after several years of decline. Colder weather and higher energy demand were key factors.
• Japan is expected to see a 2.2% decrease in emissions, continuing a steady downward trend.
• For the rest of the world, emissions are projected to rise by 1.1%.
Globally, fossil fuel emissions are rising across all major energy sources: coal up 0.8%, oil up 1%, and natural gas up 1.3%. Emissions from international aviation are expected to jump 6.8%, finally exceeding pre-COVID levels, while shipping emissions are expected to remain stable.
A Planet Under Pressure
The data show that emissions from deforestation remain high, at around 4 billion tonnes of CO₂ per year. Forest regrowth and tree planting remove about half of that amount, but not enough to make up the difference.
Overall, total CO₂ emissions from both fossil fuels and land-use changes have grown more slowly in the past decade, at a rate of 0.3% per year, compared to the previous decade at 1.9% per year. However, scientists stress that what is needed now is a sharp and sustained decline in emissions, not just slower growth.
Due to ongoing emissions, the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere is expected to reach 425.7 parts per million (ppm) in 2025, about 52% higher than before the Industrial Revolution.
The Global Carbon Budget is produced annually by more than 130 scientists from institutions around the world. Now in its 20th year, the 2025 edition once again shows that unless global emissions begin to fall immediately and dramatically, the window for keeping climate change under control is closing fast.