Current trends in Bihar vote counting largely align with the predictions made as per ‘Poll of Polls’. So far, Mahagathbandhan is leading on 72 seats, while NDA is leading on 133 constituencies, comfortably crossing the 122-seat threshold required to form government.
As per the ‘poll of polls,’ NDA is projected to win between 156 and 170 seats in Bihar’s 243-member Assembly, while the Mahagathbandhan – comprising RJD, Congress, Left parties, and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) – is expected to secure just 68 to 80 seats.
Most exit polls have predicted a comfortable win for NDA, projecting between 121 and 209 seats. RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, however, dismissed these forecasts, claiming that the Mahagathbandhan would secure a decisive victory according to internal feedback.
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party has not been projected to win more than five seats in exit polls. PK emphasized youth issues and employment, with initial speculation suggesting his party could act as a kingmaker in case of a hung assembly.
Poll of Polls | Here’s how major surveys compared:
Matrize-IANS: NDA 147-167 | MGB 70-90 | Others 2-6
Chanakya: NDA 130-138 | MGB 100-108 | Others 3-5
Poll Diary: NDA 184-209 | MGB 32-49 | Others 1-5
Praja Poll Analytics: NDA 186 | MGB 50 | Others 7
Polstrat: NDA 133-148 | MGB 87-102 | Others 3-5
TIF Research: NDA 145-163 | MGB 76-95 | Others 0-1
JVC: NDA 135-150 | MGB 88-103 | Others 3-6
Peoples Insight: NDA 133-148 | MGB 87-102 | Others 3-6
Peoples Pulse: NDA 133-159 | MGB 75-101 | Others 2-13
P-Marq: NDA 142-162 | MGB 80-98 | Others 1-7
DV Research: NDA 137-152 | MGB 83-98 | Others 3-12
Poll of Polls: NDA 146-162 | MGB 75-90 | Others 2-6
The ruling NDA, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, is widely expected to return to power. Nitish’s governance, key policy initiatives, and brief previous alliances with Mahagathbandhan were central themes in this election. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign efforts also boosted NDA’s prospects.
Mahagathbandhan has named RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, son of Lalu Prasad Yadav, as its chief ministerial candidate. Tejashwi has positioned himself as a transformative figure, promising jobs for every family. Political strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor has also projected himself as an alternative. As in previous elections, caste dynamics have played a decisive role in ticket allocation, campaigning, and voter influence.