A weekly close below the mean could signal a failed breakout and temper bullish momentum.
- Bitcoin was trading at roughly $76,000, just 0.6% above its 50-week moving average.
- Bitcoin has returned to the 50-week average in September for the first time since November 2025.
- Alex Thorn at Galaxy noted that in four out of five completed bear markets the first break of the 50-week average marked the bottom.
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped to the brink of its 50-week moving average on Friday, threatening a run of weekly closes above the key trend line.
The apex cryptocurrency traded at around $76,000, leaving it 0.6% above its 50-week simple moving average (SMA) of $75,580. The 50-week SMA is the average closing price of Bitcoin over the past 50 weeks, or around a year, and is typically viewed by traders as an indicator of the long-term trend.
The slide began on Thursday when Bitcoin posted its biggest single-day loss since June, falling 5.5% from about $80,100 to $75,700. The selloff continued on Thursday, with the price hitting a low of $74,720. That briefly put it about 1.1% below average. Bitcoin recovered by the end of the session and closed back above the line at $75,800.
A Hard-Won Trend Line
Bitcoin has only just moved back above the average. It finished the week of September 20 at $81,150, Cointelegraph reported, citing TradingView data. At the time, the 50-week moving average was around $78,780. It was Bitcoin’s first weekly close above the line since November 9, 2025.
Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, has been closely following the level. In a research note in August, he had said the 50-week average had served as a ceiling in past bear markets. In four out of the five bear markets that have ended, the first break above the bottom was the bottom.
Galaxy also warned that the signal was not foolproof. Of 13 weekly crosses back above the average in past bear markets, two were followed by a lower low, both during the 2021-2022 downturn.
Bitcoin closed above the line for seven weeks in a row as of the close of the week ended Nov. 1. That close was $78,220, or 3.3% above the average, according to Galaxy. Since then, the cushion has shrunk to well below 1%.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price was trading at $75,990, flat over the past 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘bearish’ zone, accompanied by ‘normal’ chatter levels over the past day.
Short-Term Momentum Fades
Bitcoin was down about 5.5% from its 10-week simple moving average of $80,522, according to data from Koyfin. The 10-week line moved above the 50-week line in October but was starting to flatten. The 50-week average was still heading lower, and it was down from over $100,000 at the start of the year, according to Koyfin.
The next test comes at the weekly close on Nov. 8, and a finish above the 50-week line would make it eight weeks straight.
A break below it would be the first one since the September reclaim and could revive fears of a false breakout.
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