The artificial intelligence (AI) boom is set to enter a new phase as some of the world’s most closely watched companies such as SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI prepare to tap public markets. Within a short span, AI leaders Anthropic and OpenAI have submitted confidential filings for initial public offerings (IPOs) in the US, setting the stage for some of the largest technology listings in the US. At the same time, Elon Musk-led SpaceX is also preparing for a public debut that could potentially eclipse all previous IPOs in terms of valuation.
Anthropic recently raised fresh capital in a funding round that valued the company at nearly $965 billion. The company is preparing for a stock market debut while OpenAI is reportedly targeting a valuation that could approach the $1 trillion mark. SpaceX, meanwhile, is seeking an even loftier valuation of around $1.75 trillion, a figure that would make it one of the most valuable companies ever to go public.
However, the excitement surrounding these IPOs has also sparked concerns about whether private market valuations have become disconnected from underlying business fundamentals, according to a report in The Indian Express. Investors have infused unprecedented amounts of capital into AI and frontier technology companies, leading some analysts to question whether current expectations can realistically be achieved.
Among the companies preparing to list, SpaceX has attracted particular scrutiny. Analysts at Morningstar peg the company’s fair value at approximately $780 billion—less than half of the valuation reportedly being targeted for its IPO. The research firm says investors may be assigning excessive value to future growth opportunities, especially those tied to AI-related ventures that remain largely unproven.
According to the report, Morningstar is uncertain of the company’s long-term competitive advantages amid uncertainty surrounding SpaceX’s recently acquired AI businesses.
The firm noted that while AI could eventually become a major growth driver, it also carries significant execution risks and the potential for value destruction if commercial opportunities fail to materialize as expected. Based on its discounted cash flow analysis, Morningstar believes the market’s current valuation assumptions may be overly optimistic.
If SpaceX succeeds in achieving its targeted valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion, it would surpass the record set by Saudi Aramco’s landmark 2019 public offering and become the largest IPO ever undertaken.
Since its founding in 2002, SpaceX has evolved far beyond its origins as a rocket-launch company. Today, the company operates across multiple high-growth sectors, including reusable space transportation, satellite-based internet services through Starlink, and emerging AI infrastructure initiatives. Management estimates that its total addressable market exceeds $28 trillion, with approximately $26.5 trillion linked directly or indirectly to AI-related opportunities, says the Indian Express report.
A key component of the bullish case for SpaceX lies in its ambitions to become a major provider of computing infrastructure for artificial intelligence. Morningstar estimates that the company could potentially account for between 4% and 21% of global computing capacity by 2040, depending on the success of its various infrastructure projects.
Nevertheless, analysts remain divided on the extent to which these opportunities should be reflected in the company’s valuation today. Morningstar does not currently view Musk’s AI venture, Grok, as one of the leading AI platforms globally. Instead, the firm believes the more important drivers of future profitability will be the utilisation rates of large-scale computing facilities such as Colossus I and Colossus II, along with the company’s ability to commercialise AI computing capacity both on Earth and potentially in orbit.
The debate surrounding SpaceX bears similarities to the skepticism that once surrounded Tesla, the Indian Express said. When Tesla went public in 2010, many investors argued that the company’s valuation was difficult to justify given its limited production scale and uncertain profitability. Over time, however, Tesla exceeded expectations, transformed the automotive industry, and became one of the world’s most valuable corporations.
Yet there is a crucial distinction between the two cases. Tesla’s valuation was primarily based on a tangible product and a clearly identifiable market opportunity in electric vehicles. In contrast, critics argue that a substantial portion of SpaceX’s proposed valuation depends on future assumptions regarding Starlink’s expansion, AI infrastructure demand, and emerging technologies whose economics remain uncertain.
As Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX move closer to public markets, investors will face a critical question: are these valuations a reflection of genuine long-term growth potential, or do they represent another period of excessive optimism driven by the AI revolution? The answer could shape not only the success of these IPOs but also the broader trajectory of global technology markets in the years ahead.