James Lavish said AI stocks, cash yields, and long-time holders selling call options have kept Bitcoin stuck near $80,000.
- James Lavish said “there’s a truth to the Bitcoin fatigue,” as many early holders have sold and are “just not active anymore.”
- He said younger investors have moved money into prediction markets and sports betting.
- Still, he said “the bottom is in,” with a base case of Bitcoin topping out around $400,000 to $500,000 in 2029.
James Lavish said “there’s a truth to the Bitcoin (BTC) fatigue,” as many early holders of the cryptocurrency have sold and stepped away while its price struggled to break out. Lavish said younger investors once rotated between Bitcoin and altcoins, but many have now moved their money into prediction markets and sports betting instead.
Lavish, who co-manages the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and serves as an independent director at Strive Inc. (ASST), said on Friday on the What Bitcoin Did podcast that he thought that it has gotten to “that point now where you’ve got so many of the original people who are in it sold enough that they’re just not active anymore.”
“Everybody’s on their phone betting 24/7,” Lavish said, citing conversations with college students. He said many young people feel they “can’t see how you’re gonna get ahead,” which pushed them toward riskier bets.
His comments came as Bitcoin’s price climbed up by 0.8% during the past 24 hours, trading around $77,300. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘bearish’ zone, while chatter around it stayed at ‘normal’ levels over the past day.
Stuck Near $80,000
Lavish questioned why Bitcoin hasn’t rallied despite rising U.S. debt, inflation of nearly 4% and higher oil prices, pointing to heavy flows into AI stocks and attractive yields on cash. Long-time holders selling call options also weighed on prices, he said, because market makers sold Bitcoin to hedge those trades.
Despite the fatigue, Lavish said he believed that the “bottom [was] in, and that we are back in that expansion cycle for Bitcoin.” His base case was that Bitcoin would top out at around $400,000 to $500,000 in early to mid-2029. That was comparatively lower than his earlier call of $1 million by 2030 or 2031, he said.
Lavish has also been watching government debt markets closely. In August, as Bitcoin pushed past $67,000 after the U.S. Treasury doubled its long-dated bond buybacks, he had said that the U.S. Treasury had “blinked.”
He expected interest in Bitcoin to return once prices recovered. “Once we get back over 100, you’re gonna like the interest is gonna tick back up again,” Lavish had said at the time.
Read also: <Michael Saylor Compares Bitcoin’s Financialization To Rockefeller’s Oil And Edison’s Electricity, Calls It ‘A Good Thing’<
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