The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) continues to hold a strong position in Uttar Pradesh ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections, with most of its previous voters staying loyal and many former non-voters now expressing support for the ruling alliance.
According to the News18 UP Mega Survey, conducted in association with Pvalue Analytics, 66.6% of respondents said they would vote for the BJP-NDA if elections were held today, while 26.4% backed the Samajwadi Party (SP)-Congress alliance and 5.4% supported the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The findings point to a sizeable lead for the BJP, even as the Opposition continues to attract some voters from its camp.
BJP retains most of its previous voters
The survey’s voter-transition data shows that 91.2% of respondents who recalled voting for the BJP-NDA in the 2022 Assembly elections still prefer the alliance. Among those who recalled voting for SP-Congress in 2022, 85.3% continue to support the Opposition alliance.
However, voter movement between the two camps presents a different picture. Around 7.1% of recalled BJP-NDA voters now prefer SP-Congress, while 12.6% of recalled SP-Congress voters have shifted their preference to the BJP-NDA.
Former non-voters add to the BJP’s support base
The BJP’s wider support base is also reflected in the preferences of people who recalled not voting in the 2022 Assembly elections. Among these respondents, 58% currently prefer the BJP-NDA, compared with 28.9% who favour SP-Congress.
This support from previous non-voters helps explain why the BJP continues to maintain a substantial lead despite the Opposition gaining some voters from its camp. However, their current preference does not guarantee that they will vote in the 2027 elections.
A similar trend appears in the survey’s assessment of the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Around 91% of respondents who recalled voting for the BJP-NDA continue to prefer the alliance, while SP-Congress retains approximately 83% of its recalled voters.
Yogi Adityanath remains the preferred CM choice
Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath remains the leading choice for the top post, with 66.2% of respondents preferring him as chief minister. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav received support from 24.4%.
The survey also found that 66.6% of respondents believe the BJP-NDA is likely to return to power, against 26.5% who expect the SP-Congress alliance to form the next government. Separately, 65.2% said the BJP should get a third term in Uttar Pradesh.
Public satisfaction with the Yogi Adityanath government stood at 77.1%, while 13.5% of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with its performance.
Law and order gets the highest rating
Among the seven areas assessed by the survey, law and order received the highest satisfaction rating at 74%. Infrastructure followed at 68.6%, while delivery of welfare schemes received 66.3%.
The difference between voter groups was particularly visible on law and order. Among current BJP-NDA voters, 89.6% were satisfied with the government’s handling of the issue. The figure was around 43% among SP-Congress and BSP voters. Law and order was also the most frequently cited voting issue, with 33.4% identifying it as their main concern.
NDA leads across all seven regions
The survey’s regional data, based on respondents’ recollection of their 2024 Lok Sabha vote, showed the BJP-NDA ahead of SP-Congress across all seven regions of Uttar Pradesh.
The alliance recorded its strongest recalled support in Doab at 71.1%, followed by Ruhelkhand at 71%, West UP at 69.8%, East UP at 68.7% and Awadh at 66%. Its share was lower in North East UP at 60.4% and Bundelkhand at 59.9%, but it remained ahead in both regions.
For SP-Congress, North East UP was the strongest region, with a recalled vote share of 32.5%. Awadh followed at 27.6% and East UP at 25.1%. Its share stood at 24.5% in Bundelkhand, 21.4% in Ruhelkhand, 18.9% in West UP and 16.1% in Doab.
Earlier survey also pointed to BJP advantage
An by News Leader Live and Matrize News Communications also indicated that the BJP alliance could retain power in the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections. Its published regional projections suggested that the BJP alliance could win 77 of the 118 seats in Awadh, compared with 40 for the Samajwadi Party alliance and one for the BSP. The survey also projected a stronger performance for the BJP alliance in Bundelkhand.