RKLB Rises Overnight: Cathie Wood’s ARK Puts Neutron ‘Close To The Falcon 9’ — Firms ‘In Dire Need’ Of Launches

• Cathie Wood’s ARK said Neutron comes close to Falcon 9’s payload capacity, targeting 13,000 kgs versus 17,000 kgs.
• ARK said satellite operators are in “dire need” of launches as they expand their constellations.
• Kepler booked a dedicated Neutron mission no earlier than 2028, giving it greater control over scheduling and orbital placement.

Shares of Rocket Lab (RKLB) gained over 1% overnight heading into Friday as Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management highlighted Neutron’s planned payload capacity and satellite operators’ urgent need for launch access.

RKLB stock’s rebound followed a 5% drop to $68.4 in Thursday’s regular session. Shares are down 7% for the week, on track for their worst weekly run since late August. 

ARK Puts Neutron Within Reach Of Falcon 9 

Rocket Lab’s next-generation Neutron rocket could offer satellite operators an alternative approaching Falcon 9’s payload capacity, according to ARK analysts Tasha Keeney and Daniel Maguire.

Keeney praised Rocket Lab for having “done a great job” in an industry where successful launches are difficult to achieve. Neutron “comes close to the Falcon 9,” she said, though its payload capacity remains “a little bit shy.”

Maguire put Neutron’s planned capacity at 13,000 kilograms, versus about 17,000 kilograms for Falcon 9 in a partially reusable configuration. However, Neutron is still under development, with Rocket Lab targeting delivery to the launch pad in the fourth quarter of 2026 before demonstrating its capabilities in flight.

SpaceX’s Satellite Push Leaves Room For Rivals

ARK sees a shortage of launch capacity as satellite operators race to expand their constellations. “When we speak to a lot of the satellite providers, or you look at press releases or statements from different companies, they are all in dire need of getting access to launch,” Maguire said.

SpaceX’s growing internal demand could deepen that shortage. Maguire pointed to Starlink V3 deployments and upcoming StarMind AI satellites as launch requirements that could open the door to competing providers. “There really is a huge gap in the market for someone like Rocket Lab to potentially take, should they execute on the Neutron rocket development plan,” he said.

The comments build on ARK’s earlier view that SpaceX’s shift toward Starship could create openings for Rocket Lab and Stoke Space. More providers would also give government customers a broader supply chain and commercial operators additional alternatives to SpaceX.

Rocket Lab Builds Multiyear Mission Pipeline

Rocket Lab’s Neutron deal with Kepler Communications highlights the appeal of dedicated launches for satellite operators seeking greater control over timing and orbital placement.

Scheduled no earlier than 2028 from Wallops Island, Virginia, the mission will expand Kepler’s optical connectivity, on-orbit computing and hosted-payload capabilities. Kepler previously deployed its first 33 satellites through rideshare launches. Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck said Neutron offers constellation operators “tailored missions and secure access to space.”

Demand is also growing for Electron. Late last month, Rocket Lab announced its largest commercial agreement for the vehicle: 20 additional launches for Japanese Earth-observation company Synspective between 2028 and 2031. The deal lifts Synspective’s total contracted Electron missions to 47, with 34 still to fly.

ARK Buys More RKLB Despite SpaceX’s Lead

ARK has backed its Rocket Lab thesis with fresh buying, adding approximately 233,482 shares worth $16.6 million across ARKK, ARKQ and ARKX last week, following about $25.7 million in purchases in September.

The purchases extend ARK’s return to the stock after earlier sales, including exits from ARKQ and ARKX in June. Even so, ARK believes SpaceX holds a “10 year lead on the industry.” Keeney said much of the sector is “trying to catch up to Falcon 9” as SpaceX pushes toward full and rapid reusability.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About RKLB?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for RKLB has been ‘neutral’ over the past week amid ‘normal’ message volume.

One bullish user said, “$RKLB I keep telling people; Neutron will not be a single event. They have to put the launch in place and each step of the way this thing will go up and up in pure excitement.”

Another user said, “$RKLB dont want to speculate but with the recent spacex spectrum deal we can say that rocket lab assuming neutron launches should be the main satellite manufacturer for equatys. look to $ASTS to see what happens when you dont own launch”

RKLB stock has declined 2% year-to-date.

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