India have started the men’s Hockey World Cup with a win and a loss, and the latter of those could have long reaching effects on their chances to make it to the last four of the tournament for the first time since 1975, which is also the only year they won it.
India were outplayed by England on Monday and suffered a 4-2 loss, the first time in just over 12 years that a match between the two sides finished with a goal difference of more than one.
This has made their next match a must-win game for them, something they probably wouldn’t have wanted since it is against their historic rivals Pakistan. It may be a mismatch on paper – Pakistan are playing in the Hockey World Cup for the first time in eight years and are ranked 12th in the world to India’s 8th, but it is not out of the ordinary for matches between these two teams to be completely at odds with their forms and profiles going into it. However, even if they do beat Pakistan and qualify for the second round, the new format that is in place for this year’s World Cup means that India’s loss to England could have a say in whether they make it to the semifinal or not.
What happens if India don’t beat Pakistan
India’s last group-stage game against Pakistan will be on August 19. England face Wales in the other Pool D game earlier that day. England, ranked third in the world, are already through and are largely expected to beat the 15th-ranked Wales. India are currently placed second in the group on three points while Wales and Pakistan are on a point each. If India lose to Pakistan, they will be out and Pakistan qualify for the second round. If Wales win on the day as well, it will be down to who between them and Pakistan have the better goal difference. A draw against Pakistan and a Welsh victory would still put India through due to their superior head-to-head record against Wales in this World Cup
How ghost of 1st round defeat lingers in the 2nd round
Unlike what was the case in the last two editions of the World Cup, the teams that qualify from the first round don’t go through to quarterfinals. Instead, the eight teams that go through from the four pools in the first round are put in two new pools for the second round. At this stage, they will face only the teams who are in their pool and they didn’t face in the first round. The four teams that finish in the top two of these two pools in the second round go through to the semifinals.
India can at best finish second in Pool D and if they do, they will be placed in the new Pool E along with England and the top two teams from Pool A. India and England won’t face each other in the second round and will play two matches against the two teams from Pool A. However, the result of the match between India and England will be carried forward to the second round as well. It means that in case it comes down to a tie between India and England for a top-two spot in Pool E, the latter have a higher chance of qualifying. For India to avoid such a scenario, their best route would be to win both matches they will be playing the second round.
That is easier said than done. At present, the two top-ranked teams in Pool A are hosts and three-time champions Netherlands and 2016 Olympics gold medallists Argentina. Unless both sides get stunned by the far less-favoured New Zealand and Japan in their last first-round games, it is likely that it will be them in the same pool as India and England in the 2nd round. Argentina have won the last four matches that they have played against India, including an 8-0 win in February this year. In their last 10 matches against the Netherlands, India have won three.